Preview: UFC 329 ‘McGregor vs. Holloway 2’
· Yahoo Sports
International Fight Week is consistently one of the biggest events of the Ultimate Fighting Championship's year, and UFC 329 looks like it'll be no exception.
Conor McGregor is back, and while it's unclear how the former two-division champion will look in a long-awaited rematch against Max Holloway, that alone is enough to get a massive amount of buzz. But past that, there's a fair share of matchups on the main card that are both interesting and relevant; Paddy Pimblett brings even more personality to the card against Benoit St. Denis, bantamweight contenders Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista have their own long-overdue rematch, and top flyweight prospect Lone'er Kavanagh looks to break into title contention against Brandon Royval. Add in Terrance McKinney, who might be the surest bet in the UFC for an action-packed fight, and this seems quite set to be one of the highlights of 2026.
Welterweights
Conor McGregor (22-6) vs. Max Holloway (27-9)
Odds: Holloway (-225), McGregor (+185)Conor McGregor finally makes his return, though it's less clear than ever exactly what that means inside of the cage. It's hard to overstate exactly how much McGregor took the sport by storm in the mid-2010s; his brash personality served as the template for waves of imitators going forward, and the effect was multiplied by the Irishman's consistent ability to back his words up, usually in the form of a quick and dynamic knockout.
McGregor's rise as a fighter came to a head at the end of 2015, when he accomplished something that still seems unthinkable in retrospect, knocking out all-time great Jose Aldo in just 13 seconds to become the UFC's featherweight champion. At that point, McGregor seemed thoroughly untouchable, which only made the result of his next fight all the more shocking; initially slated for a quick turnaround against then-lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos, McGregor instead found himself in a late-notice grudge match against a theoretically overmatched Nate Diaz, only to punch himself out early and have Diaz score the all-timer of an upset. But the loss was a blessing in disguise, as the sudden comeback narrative led to McGregor's peak as a promotional draw, setting records with a Diaz rematch, a lightweight title win over Eddie Alvarez in Madison Square Garden, and a crossover boxing fight against Floyd Mayweather. That last fight is probably the moment where McGregor potentially became bigger than the sport and definitely bigger than the UFC, enough so that the promotion essentially changed their entire business model to prevent another fighter from getting that level of leverage. But the two parties still work together when there's money to be made -- and there is in fact plenty of money to be made, even though McGregor has only won one fight in the last decade.
After a one-sided loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018 that closed the loop on the UFC's lightweight title lineage, McGregor's essentially been a special attraction that occasionally looms over the lightweight and welterweight divisions -- though despite his longevity as a star, it's unclear exactly where he is as a fighter. Not much can be taken from McGregor's one quasi-recent win, a 40-second knockout of Donald Cerrone, and his two fights against Dustin Poirier in 2021 were quite a mixed bag; McGregor didn't look shot -- though he also didn't demonstrate the quick-trigger precision that made him such a terror at his peak -- but he also looked like the sport had passed him by tactically, landing some solid offense and showing more of a willingness to clinch and wrestle before Poirier figured him out and finished him in both fights. That second bout ended with McGregor breaking his ankle thanks to a wrong step, and the meltdown he had afterwards hasn't really stopped; the main narrative of McGregor's last half-decade has been a barrage of controversies and headlines that don't exactly suggest he's in the best headspace for this comeback fight. But he's still a star and there's a ton of curiosity about exactly how this is going to go - particularly since if there's any time to have this rematch against Max Holloway, the best time for McGregor's chances might be now.
These two first met in 2013, just as McGregor was starting to make his name in the UFC and Holloway was starting to figure things out, with McGregor overcoming a torn ACL to grind out what wound up as a surprisingly wrestling-heavy win. Still just 21 at the time, Holloway was considered a top prospect even despite a rocky record to kick off his UFC career, and he indeed went on his career-defining run directly after the McGregor loss, winning 13 straight fights in five years to ascend to the UFC's featherweight championship.
The UFC's featherweight title has a lineage of fighters that have helped move the sport forward in some fashion, and if McGregor's been the template for fighters to try and get themselves over promotionally, Holloway's been the blueprint inside of the cage; his dedication to pressing the pace with combination punching drowned high-level opponent after high-level opponent, essentially forcing the entire sport to keep up or get overwhelmed. It wasn't until 2019 that Alexander Volkanovski showed up to announce himself as the next evolution of the sport, wrestling the title away from Holloway, though there was still a clear gap between Holloway and the rest of the featherweight division; Calvin Kattar was theoretically a contender at the time, but Holloway handled him so easily that at one point he was looking away from Kattar and conversing with the commentary booth while still managing to win exchanges. But Holloway's inability to get past Volkanovski did eventually force him to retool a bit and eventually wind up at lightweight.
Holloway still fights at a high pace compared to a lot of fighters, but he's clearly pivoted towards more power at the expense of volume, picking his spots to both land some hard counters and initiate a blitzing combination. That's resulted in some impressive highs where Holloway has once again looked like one of the best fighters in the sport; his win over current lightweight champion Justin Gaethje was somehow the unanimous highlight of a stacked UFC 300 card and resulted in an all-timer of a literal last-second knockout, and Holloway's new approach finally got him his first win over Dustin Poirier in three tries last year. But it also resulted in one of the most one-sided losses of Holloway's career this past March; Holloway was able to overwhelm Charles Oliveira a decade or so prior, but this time around Oliveira took the initiative that Holloway gave up and out-wrestled him early and often, besmirching the legacy of the BMF title with a grinding decision win. That result was disheartening in the moment but does add to the intrigue here; wrestling was McGregor's path to victory all the way back in 2013, and given that this is Holloway's debut at welterweight and McGregor figures to be the much larger man, it's a clear path to victory -- albeit an ugly one -- for the Irishman if he shows up somewhat prepared.
But the main bet here is whether or not McGregor still has it in him to be an effective fighter in 2026; he'll have a power and strength advantage, and while his elite knockout ability might be gone, his increased willingness to play the physical bully -- albeit half a decade ago -- could serve him quite well. But it's hard to know what to expect from McGregor nowadays, and again, not much over the last half-decade seems to be going positively; a clear worry for a man that struggled in deep waters even at his peak against someone with an all-time level of guts. The pick is Holloway via second-round stoppage.
Jump To »
McGregor vs. Holloway
St. Denis vs. Pimblett
Sandhagen vs. Bautista
Royval vs. Kavanagh
Green vs. McKinney
The Prelims
Lightweights
Benoit St. Denis (17-3, 1 N/C) vs. Paddy Pimblett (23-4)
Odds: St. Denis (-135), Pimblett (+114)The UFC -- potentially intentionally -- might not create stars like McGregor anymore, but Paddy Pimblett proves that certain fighters can still break through. Like McGregor, "Paddy the Baddy" was one of the most prominent fighters on the European scene for a few years before he decided he was ready for the UFC jump, though he seemed much less poised for success than McGregor was upon his UFC debut.
Pimblett's general approach, which at worst devolved into him flailing at his opponents with his chin in the air as he attempted to get them to the ground, seemed to have a ton of holes for potential opponents to exploit, but some combination of the UFC and Pimblett's team did well to navigate him through some advantageous matchups -- even if Pimblett was still quite a bit lucky to eke out a controversial decision win over Jared Gordon.
Pimblett followed that up with a win over Tony Ferguson that might have been even more worrying; Ferguson was diminished to the point that the fight figured to be a showcase for the Englishman's impressive grappling skill, but even that wasn't on display as Pimblett tired out and grinded out an ugly and unimpressive decision victory. That was enough for the UFC to seemingly decided to cash in their chips on Pimblett and see how far up the ladder he could run, and to his credit, Pimblett got his act together enough to meet the moment, even if he still got some high-profile opponents at the right time. Pimblett's win over King Green was a particularly poor showing from Green, who panicked his way into a quick submission loss, and what figured to be Pimblett's first big test against Michael Chandler proved to be the beginning of Chandler's late career fall-off, as the American was quickly cowed after Pimblett refused to go away early.
Pimblett showed some obvious improvements in those fights, namely being patient enough to not make his lack of defense an immediate liability, but it was still unclear how well he could contend at a high level -- and when it was announced he'd fight for an interim lightweight title against Justin Gaethje, the worry was that Pimblett was facing another shopworn veteran at just the right time to score another big win without providing many new insights. What played out was an entertaining fight that's still a bit hard to analyze, as Gaethje and Pimblett each threw their recent technical improvements aside to engage in five rounds of a sloppy war that at least proved each man's heart and durability. Gaethje won and obviously snapped back into form and looked as good as ever in his subsequent win over Ilia Topuria, so perhaps Pimblett will look closer to his improved self here against Benoit St. Denis -- though this might be such a quick sprint that any technique might not even matter.
St. Denis was an interesting late-notice signing for the UFC in 2021, as the Frenchman was still quite raw -- just two and a half years into his professional career -- but showed a level of aggression that figured to serve him well going forward, even if it was unclear how well his vicious grappling game would translate against better competition. And if nothing else, his UFC debut showed off his durability, as some refereeing malpractice allowed him to absorb a ton of offense from Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and even stage a bit of a comeback. Once that loss was out of the way, "God of War" went about rampaging his way through the lightweight division and standing out as a potential star in his native country; even beyond his five-fight winning streak, St. Denis's fights were notable for their level of action, as his pathological aggression constantly pressed the issue in terms of making something happen.
St. Denis entered 2024 seemingly ready to make the jump to lightweight contender, but the Frenchman instead wound up winless on the year; Dustin Poirier was sharp enough on the counter to hand St. Denis his first knockout loss, and a main event against Renato “Money” Moicano ended in a doctor stoppage even as St. Denis was seemingly gearing up to make a comeback. Those results suggest that St. Denis likely has a ceiling just short of the absolute elite of the lightweight division, but he's certainly earned another shot to try and break through after a few big wins; he mauled Mauricio Ruffy in a victory that continues to age well, quickly starched Beneil Dariush and managed to outlast Dan Hooker in a blood-and-guts war. But, somewhat surprisingly given the demeanor of both men -- Pimblett is a perennial goofball while St. Denis remains deathly serious -- Pimblett seems to be too tough of a challenge for St. Denis to handle. St. Denis is seemingly incapable of moving backwards, and while he might be quick enough to land some hard offense on Pimblett immediately, Pimblett's shocking level of durability makes a quick knockout seem quite unlikely. From there, things should wind up in a grappling match that Pimblett seems poised quite well to win given St. Denis's level of overt aggression there as well; the pick is Pimblett via first-round submission.
Jump To »
McGregor vs. Holloway
St. Denis vs. Pimblett
Sandhagen vs. Bautista
Royval vs. Kavanagh
Green vs. McKinney
The Prelims
Bantamweights
Cory Sandhagen (18-6) vs. Mario Bautista (17-3)
Odds: Sandhagen (-148), Bautista (+124)The main event isn't the only opportunity for a fighter to get revenge on this card, as Mario Bautista looks to avenge his UFC debut loss to Cory Sandhagen in 2019. Bautista was clearly in the camp of being promising but too raw when the UFC picked him up as a late-notice replacement, but he did well to give Sandhagen a fun scrap for three and a half minutes before getting caught in a fight-ending armbar. Bautista had a few more fun fights from there, most notably a three-round war in a win over Jin Soo Son, but a 2021 knockout loss to Trevin Jones proved to be a bit of a worry, even if now looks like a much-necessary turning point in retrospect.
Bautista took nearly a year off after that loss and came back a much smarter fighter; still clearly down to scrap, Bautista did a better job of picking his spots to dive into danger, as well as leaning more on a wrestling and grappling game that's held up even at a high level. After a few one-sided wins over the bantamweight division's lesser lights, Bautista showed just how skilled he is on the mat with big wins over Da'Mon Blackshear and Ricky Simon, which in turn elevated Bautista into fights with actual contenders. But while Bautista continued to put together big wins over the likes of Jose Aldo and Patrick “Patchy” Mix, his performances did seem to dull the enthusiasm around his fights; fans reacted poorly to his leaning on wrestling to salt away a win against Aldo that was starting to get away with him, and a shockingly poor performance from Mix resulted in Bautista coasting to an easy win without ever having to put his foot on the gas pedal. Thankfully, Bautista now seems to have regained the plot with two fun fights in his last two bouts, giving top contender Umar Nurmagomedov three tough rounds in a close loss before handling Vinicius Oliveira; given that he also seems to have closed up a lot of the defensive lapses from his first fight with Sandhagen, now's as good a time as any for a rematch.
Sandhagen's in a tough spot at the moment, as he's clearly among the top fighters in the bantamweight division but doesn't have much of a way to crack back into the championship picture. Sandhagen's win over Bautista came just before he had a true breakthrough as a potential contender; fairly unknown ahead of his UFC debut a year prior, Sandhagen was thrown into the deep end against John Lineker and Raphael Assuncao after the Bautista fight and pulled off surprising victories both times. Aljamain Sterling ran through Sandhagen shortly thereafter, but most of Sandhagen's performances proved him to suddenly stand among the most diverse and adaptable fighters in the sport; blessed with a long frame, Sandhagen showed the ability to keep opponents at bay with both volume and power as a striker, all with some impressive wrestling and grappling to switch things up as necessary. But there were some frustrating weak spots along the way, as some of the bantamweight division's better wrestlers succeeded quite well in slowing Sandhagen down; Sterling quickly found a submission in their fight, but T.J. Dillashaw was also able to eke out a controversial decision win on the back of a lot of low-output control. Another loss to Petr Yan, in retrospect, raised the worry that Sandhagen just might not have the level of top-flight athleticism and processing ability to become champion in what might be the UFC's best division -- but that wasn't apparent at the time, as Sandhagen rebounded quite well with a number of big wins that leaned on several different gameplans. But a 2024 decision loss to Nurmagomedov suggested that Sandhagen might be losing the plot a bit in terms of balancing thoughtfulness with aggression; he did well to stifle Nurmagomedov's wrestling attack at points, but did so at the expense of his usual level of striking output.
It's hard to tell exactly how much Sandhagen has corrected those issues given his 2025, as his win over Deiveson Figueiredo was a surprisingly grappling-heavy affair that led to an expectedly one-sided title fight loss to Merab Dvalishvili, but it'll be interesting to monitor in this fight against Bautista, who now clearly has the level of wrestling threat that could get into Sandhagen's head. This would be a much clearer call for Sandhagen in a five-round fight given that Bautista's cardio has been spotty at times, but with Bautista now clearly the more aggressive fighter in 2026, this becomes quite interesting as a three-rounder; again, Bautista seems unlikely to dive into another submission loss given the high-level experience he now has, but that also doesn't necessarily mean that Sandhagen isn't still the better grappler if this fight winds up taking place primarily on the mat. Bautista could eke this out via aggression, and in general this is basically a coin flip, but the lean is that Sandhagen can put together enough offense -- and win out on enough scrambles -- to get the nod on the scorecards; the pick is Sandhagen via decision.
Jump To »
McGregor vs. Holloway
St. Denis vs. Pimblett
Sandhagen vs. Bautista
Royval vs. Kavanagh
Green vs. McKinney
The Prelims
Flyweights
Brandon Royval (17-9) vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (10-1)
Odds: Kavanagh (-218), Royval (+180)Is Lone'er Kavanagh ready to jump into the flyweight title picture? Kavanagh was just six fights into his professional career upon his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2024, but he was already one of the top prospects in the world regardless of weight class. An elite athlete with a dynamic striking game and the ability to hold his own seemingly anywhere, Kavanagh clearly had championship-level upside; add in that he checked a lot of promotional boxes as an Englishman of Irish and Chinese heritage, and it seemed like a slam dunk that Kavanagh would be featured prominently sooner rather than later. However, Kavanagh's first two UFC bouts were merely lukewarm rather than signaling the arrival of flyweight's next great contender; they were both solid wins that showed the upside Kavanagh had as a prospect, but he also walked a fine line between being poised and overly patient.
That made it a pleasant surprise when Kavanagh picked up the pace in his next bout against Charles Johnson, though the end result did show why Kavanagh had been so careful in pacing himself; he clearly flagged by the second round, which allowed Johnson to find a sudden knockout and hand Kavanagh his first professional loss. That suggested Kavanagh needed a few more steps back in competition, but he wound up getting quite the opposite; he wasn't the first choice for the spot, but after a bunch of injuries and issues with other fighters, Kavanagh found himself in a Mexico City main event against former champion Brandon Moreno. To his credit, Kavanagh met the moment with the best performance of his career, getting off to a hot start and then meting out his offense well down the stretch despite fighting at elevation, but it's not entirely clear that Kavanagh should immediately be considered a contender going forward; Moreno's had a rough stretch of performances recently, and his willingness to give Kavanagh time and space to work was another example of poor gameplanning that has cost Moreno a winnable fight. And so it's time for another test against Brandon Royval to prove that Kavanagh is ready for the big time.
Royval was a signing early on in the pandemic and took the UFC by storm in 2020, becoming a contender in just two fights; a whirlwind of violence, Royval's reckless aggression on both the feet and the mat was able to overwhelm Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, resulting in second-round wins for "Raw Dawg" each time out. Royval might have made it three straight had an old shoulder injury not suddenly popped up in a fight against Moreno, but Royval continued to prove himself as a top flyweight going forward, even though he consistently proved unable to get past Alexandre Pantoja. Their first fight, directly after Royval's loss to Moreno, saw Pantoja prove himself able to scramble with Royval and find a submission of his own, but their rematch -- a title fight with Pantoja as champion -- was a much more disheartening affair, as Pantoja consistently stifled Royval for five rounds of a one-sided grind. It's understandable that Royval felt the need to change things up after such a result, but he landed on a surprising pivot that traded his issues for a whole new set of problems.
Far from the buzzsaw of his past form, Royval now fashions himself as an output-heavy range fighter, taking advantage of his long frame to stay at range and simply throw out a ton of low-powered offense, often without much accuracy to boot. Somewhat surprisingly, that approach managed to befuddle Moreno in a rematch along with top contender Tatsuro Taira, but Royval's last two opponents chose not to respect his offense and came out with the win; Joshua Van dragged Royval through a fast-paced war that proved Royval can still throw down when called upon, while Manel Kape simply marched Royval down until he found a singular knockout blow. This basically comes down to how Kavanagh reacts to the annoyance of Royval's constant output; there's a decent chance that the book is now out on Royval and Kavanagh will just not choose to respect him, but Kavanagh's general choosiness along with his lack of experience could leave him waiting for opportunities that Royval never puts him in position to deliver upon. The lean is that Kavanagh doesn't know how to force the issue just quite yet; the pick is Royval via decision.
Jump To »
McGregor vs. Holloway
St. Denis vs. Pimblett
Sandhagen vs. Bautista
Royval vs. Kavanagh
Green vs. McKinney
The Prelims
Lightweights
King Green (35-17-1, 1 N/C) vs. Terrance McKinney (18-8)
Odds: McKinney (-148), Green (+124)Well, if the UFC wanted to kick off the main card with a bang, there aren't many better choices than Terrance McKinney. For better or for worse, McKinney is one of the easiest fighters in the sport to break down; he's an elite athlete that's capable as both a striker and a wrestler, but starts off every fight by immediately dumping out his gas tank and hunting for the finish, leaving him exhausted and willing to fold within a few minutes. That'd be a death sentence for most fighters, but McKinney is electric enough that he wins a decent amount more than he loses, including four victories within a minute -- some of which even came against solid competition like Matt Frevola and Kyle Nelson, the latter of which was McKinney's last fight. McKinney's always had a clear ceiling, but he does get a shot at his biggest win yet here against King Green, who's experiencing a bit of a renaissance in 2026.
Green initially looked like he'd be a hard-luck story after a strong start to his UFC career; already well-traveled by the time he came over from Strikeforce in 2013, Green won a few fights and then became a forgotten man for the better part of half a decade, as a series of injuries and personal issues kept him out of the cage. But Green had his long-overdue breakthrough amidst the chaos of the UFC's 2020; finally healthy, Green was willing and able to stay busy as the UFC scrambled to fill out cards, and the judges finally started to reward Green's slick and counter-heavy approach on the scorecards as he racked up a bunch of wins. Green found himself as a fan favorite once the Octagon was back on the road and carved out a niche in the bottom half of the UFC's rankings, though it did seem like the wheels started to fall off sometime around late 2023; losses to Jalin Turner, Paddy Pimblett and Mauricio Ruffy were all quick and brutal, and a bounce-back win over Lance Gibson was an ugly decision victory against an opponent that Green would've taken apart in his prime. But 2026 has been kind to Green, as he's recaptured some of his vintage form in victories over Daniel Zellhuber and Jeremy Stephens, even if each of those opponents had some clear issues. But the fun might stop here; while Green's the much better fighter in the aggregate, McKinney does seem poised to catch Green cold in short order, as this could've been a rough matchup even in the veteran's prime. The pick is McKinney via first-round submission.
Jump To »
McGregor vs. Holloway
St. Denis vs. Pimblett
Sandhagen vs. Bautista
Royval vs. Kavanagh
Green vs. McKinney
The Prelims
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