Memorial Tournament picks 2026: To fade Ludvig, or not to fade Ludvig

June 3, 2026 · Yahoo Sports

After a nice break from big-time events, we're right back on the Siggy train this week at the Memorial Tournament, where Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young are all in the field.

Scheffler is going for the rare three-peat, something only Tiger Woods has accomplished at Jack Nicklaus' Muirfield Village (1999-2001). Only one of our experts selected him to pull off that feat.

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The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.

Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Memorial Tournament:

Memorial Tournament picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Justin Thomas (41-1, DraftKings) — Second in ball-striking a week ago to Henley but saw his putter come crashing back to earth. Still, with his improved accuracy and hot irons, I’ll gamble on a putting rebound at this number.

Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Si Woo Kim (+2250, DraftKings) — In his last eight starts at the Memorial, Si Woo Kim has GAINED with the putter six times. Probably Kim' s best career putting course, he is on an incredible heater tee-to-green in 2026. Ranked third on the PGA Tour, Si Woo is gaining an average of 1. 5 strokes per round over 53 measured rounds this year. Only Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick have been better. Fresh off gaining eight strokes with his flat stick at the CJ Cup, Kim can more than contend on a course that has been very good to him throughout his career. Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Scottie Scheffler (+320, Bet365) — Scheffler hasn’t won an event since January’s American Express, a 10-start run that includes six T-4 or better finishes. All streaks come to an end eventually, and this week, Scottie’s winless streak ends. Looking at the entire 72-man field over their last 20 rounds played, Scheffler has gained 56.51 strokes (+2.83 per round). Cameron Young, who’s second, has gained 40.78. On average, that’s 0.79 fewer strokes gained per round. And Young is the only other golfer who’s averaged 2+ per round (2.04) over that time frame. We're also at a venue where he’s won back-to-back starts, and finished no worse than T-3 in the past four times teeing it up at Muirfield Village. His Muirfield Village stats lap the field. Scottie has gained 3.8 strokes per round tee-to-green, more than double that of the next closest golfer. Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Ludvig Aberg (+1650, DraftKings) — Aberg is gaining an average of 8.5 strokes to the field in his past eight starts, proving he’s on the precipice of a win. The final-round struggles are a concern, so back it up with a top 10 or an each-way bet, but this feels like the perfect venue for his long and straight off-the-tee game and improved approach play. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Justin Thomas (41-1, DraftKings) — Thomas’ recent history at the Memorial is spotty at best, but back in his heyday he loved this place. He’s not quite back to peak JT yet, but the signs have been there, as he’s now finished T-13 or better in three consecutive starts. And he’s in playing mode, while many of the other guys at the top of this board took last week-in some cases the last two weeks-off. Per datagolf, Thomas has been positive in every major strokes-gained category (except with the putter at Colonial) for three straight events. Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Ludvig Aberg (+1650, DraftKings) — Ludvig Aberg has been playing some of the best golf of his career, with six top-10 finishes in his last nine starts. I have long felt that Muirfield Village is a perfect breakthrough spot for the young Swede, and his improvements on approach and around the green should come in extra handy this week. Past results: We have our FOURTH winner of 2026, and our first stretch of back-to-back winners. Ryan Noonan and Stephen Hennessey both correctly picked Cameron Young to win the Cadillac Championship at +1250, giving Noonan his third win of 2026 (and his second in a row with the Fitzpatrick bros. at 12-1 at Zurich) and Hennessey his second, his first coming at the Farmers (Justin Rose 60-1). Noonan also nailed Nico Echavarria’s victory at the Cognizant at 60-1. Hop on the train while you can. Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (below) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts!

Memorial Tournament picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Mayo: Kurt Kitayama (66-1, BetRivers) — Kitayama has a history of playing well at the longer difficult tracks against strong fields the past few years, and he enters in sharp form. He hasn’t finished outside the top 20 since the Masters while maintaining an elite level of ball-striking. Yes, the putter is generally a let down, however, his best putting efforts this season have come at Riv, Aronimink, and Augusta; the three courses which should rival Muirfield Village in speed. Stewart: Ben Griffin (41-1, DraftKings) — We all saw Ben Griffin come close to defending his title at the Charles Schwab. Walking the practice tee at Muirfield Village, Griffin looks really good. Ben is a player perfectly suited for Jack' s place. Well-rounded tee-to-green and an excellent putter on super smooth surfaces, Griffin finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler last year. Gaining more than 11 strokes on the field at the Memorial in 2025, this is a perfect example of form colliding with a confidence-producing venue. Noonan: Min Woo Lee (45-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The year-over-year gains for Min Woo Lee are flying under the radar a bit. He’s more than a stroke per round better in 2026, with big strides throughout the bag. He’s played his best golf this season on long courses against the toughest fields, including three straight T-18 or better finishes.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Alex Smalley (46-1, DraftKings, without Scheffler) — Smalley proved he can go toe to toe with the big boys at the PGA, and this should be a good suit for his consistent ball-striking. Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Gotterup (51-1, DraftKings) — If Muirfield Village is going to play as tough as it has the last three years, I like Gotterup’s chances to contend, especially coming off the tough test at Aronimink. He’s a top 10 driver of the ball on tour and top 10 in terms of total strokes-gained. Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (48-1, DraftKings) — Anytime Hideki Matsuyama drops this low on the odds board, he is a worthy bet given his upside. Matsuyama is a former champion at Muirfield Village, and he is coming off an excellent iron week at Colonial. RELATED: U.S. Open best bets: 13 picks to win at Shinnecock

Memorial Tournament picks 2026: Players We’re Fading

Mayo: Ludvig Aberg (+1650, DraftKings) — Perfect skill set for Memorial? Yes. Perfect decision-making for Memorial. Nah. Stewart: Ludvig Aberg (+1650, DraftKings) — Five of Ludvig Åberg's last seven Round 4 scores are 70 or higher. Åberg is ranked 43rd on the PGA Tour for final-round scoring in 2026. Until that trend improves, I'll wait for Ludvig to win. Noonan: Robert MacIntyre (40-1, BetRivers) — Bobby Mac lost strokes on approach again last week at the Colonial. That’s five straight events with negative SG/approach numbers, and he’s lost strokes tee-to-green and ball-striking in four of five. I’m just sitting out until he can piece together some more consistent play. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Tommy Fleetwood (22-1, Bet365) — Fleetwood’s approach play from 175-225 yards has been pedestrian over the past 36 rounds, per Betspertsgolf.com, and he’s lost strokes to the field in his career at Muirfield Village. Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (29-1, DraftKings) — I get the strong history at Memorial and that his numbers have been perfectly solid this year. But this still seems too short for a guy who hasn’t won since 2022. Lack: Xander Schauffele (18-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Xander Schauffele has felt just a few minor details off this season. His ball-striking has been very solid, but the two-time major champion has significantly regressed as a chipper, and short game remains incredibly important at Muirfield Village.

Memorial Tournament picks 2026: Matchups

Mayo: Si Woo Kim (+110) over Ludvig Aberg (Coolbet) — I’ll take the accuracy and short game over the power and braun. Stewart: JJ Spaun (-124) over Jordan Spieth (DraftKings) — JJ Spaun's ball-striking won another 72-hole H2H matchup for us at Colonial. Muirfield Village requires Oakmont-style accuracy, and JJ's recent run displays why he is the reigning US Open Champion. Jordan Spieth's rollercoaster runs of late won't end well at Muirfield Village, where getting out of position costs players multiple shots. Let's keep printing money with the steady Spaun. Noonan: Kurt Kitayama (-125) over Shane Lowry (DraftKings) — Lowry’s season hasn’t been the same since late Sunday afternoon at PGA National. He hasn’t finished inside the top 20 in the seven starts since, while Kurt Kitayama continues to post elite tee-to-green stats while finishing inside the top 20 in four straight starts, all of which were either Signature Events or majors. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (+105) over Tommy Fleetwood (DraftKings) — Thomas is trending up and should love the way Muirfield Village suits his power fade off the tee. I documented Fleetwood’s struggles in the key approach buckets and poor history at Muirfield Village in my fade of the week, so this is an easy one. Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Gotterup (-108) over Rickie Fowler (DraftKings) — Fowler burned everybody last week and is probably due for a bounce back, but I’ll roll with my pick to win here. Lack: Min Woo Lee (-115) over Sam Burns (Southpoint) — It’s difficult to seriously rely on any aspect of Sam Burns’ game right now outside of his putting, while Min Woo Lee has significantly improved as an approach player this year, and his driving and short game remains top notch. A bump in Min Woo Lee’s recent driving accuracy should also pay dividends at Muirfield Village. Matchup Results from the Charles Schwab Challenge: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Spaun (-125) over Bhatia); Lack: 1 for 1 (Novak (-135) over Hojgaard); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Bhatia (-108) over Hisatsune); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Smalley (-145) over Woodland); Powers: 0 for 1; Noonan: 0 for 1Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes):Stewart: 13-3-2 (up 8.5 units); Powers: 13-7-0 (up 4.93 units); Lack: 11-8-1 (up 0.69 units); Mayo: 9-10-1 (down 0.46 units); Noonan: 8-10-2 (down 3.25 units); Hennessey: 8-11-1 (down 3.91 units)

Memorial Tournament picks 2026: Top 10s

Mayo: Alex Fitzpatrick (+1000, BetRivers) — Of the super longshots, AFITZ makes a ton of sense. He’s been competitive in strong field events over the last month and has a great blend of ball striking and short game to mitigate some of the poor putting we’ve seen on tour so far. Stewart: Patrick Cantlay (+270, FanDuel) — Since the Players Championship in March, Patrick Cantlay has four top 12 results in five starts. Returning to a consistent venue, Cantlay is among the leaders in the field for recent approach play and strokes gained around the green. Those two skills are why Patrick has two wins at Muirfield Village Golf Club. The ever-steady Cantlay has been gaining an average of 2.7 strokes with his iron game during that period. Patrick has gained with the putter in five of his last seven Memorial starts. Noonan:Cameron Young (+170, FanDuel) — I'm not getting off this train. Admittedly, Young’s Muirfield Village history isn’t great, but I’ll continue to contend that a lot of Young’s previous results (2023-2024) are mostly meaningless to me because he’s changed so many elements of his game. Over the past 12 months, Young has gained an average of 0.53 strokes per round putting on fast greens, which is one of the best marks in the field, and light-years ahead of his peers at the top of the odds board. That comes in handy at Muirfield Village because these greens run quick. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Si Woo Kim (+200, DraftKings) — Si Woo has the third-best ball-striking numbers on tour in 2026 and has only been held back by his putter. But he’s actually gained strokes putting at Muirfield Village in six of his eight starts here, so he’s a good bet for a top 10. Powers, Golf Digest: Harris English (+495, DraftKings) — English has a pair of top 20s at Muirfield Village since 2019 and has started to turn a corner since March. Aronimink was his best approach week since Phoenix. Lack: Tommy Fleetwood (+295, DraftKings) — Tommy Fleetwood has fallen a bit under the radar this week given a disappointing missed cut at the PGA Championship, but I’m expecting a solid bounce back. Fleetwood has already recorded two excellent ball-striking performances at Muirfield Village, and his combination of great long iron play and short game deem him an awesome fit for the Jack Nicklaus design. Top-10 results from the Memorial Tournament: Everybody: 0 for 1Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 6 for 20 (up 16.15 units); Powers: 6 for 20 (up 9.25 units); Stewart: 5 for 20 (up 1.85 units); Noonan: 5 for 20 (down 0.5 units); Hennessey: 3 for 20 (down 6.6 units); Lack: 3 for 20 (down 7.65 units)About our expertsPat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry's best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.

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