Illinois basketball predictions: A 25-win season, Big Ten title and No. 2 NCAA Tournament seed
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The Illini will begin their season in less than three weeks when they face Fairleigh Dickinson on Monday, Nov. 2. Fans will get their first look at the 2026-27 team this Saturday when Illinois takes on Cincinnati in an exhibition game. The game will not be televised, but highlights and the box score will be available afterward.
Illinois will play two more preseason games against Baylor and UIC at the State Farm Center before beginning the regular season. I will not make predictions for those exhibition games, but I have included my game-by-game predictions for the regular season, along with my projections for postseason seeding.
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For reference, KenPom projects Illinois to finish 25-7, while Bart Torvik projects a 24-8 record. My prediction aligns with KenPom, as I expect the Illini to finish 25-7 overall and 15-5 in Big Ten play.
Game-by-Game Predictions
November 2: Fairleigh Dickinson — Win
November 5: Penn — Win
November 10: at Texas Tech — Loss
November 13: Sam Houston State — Win
November 17: at Duke — Loss
November 20: Eastern Illinois — Win
November 23: Winthrop — Win
November 27: Western Kentucky — Win
December 4: UConn (Chicago) — Win
December 8: at Minnesota — Win
December 12: Penn State — Win
December 20: Missouri (St. Louis) — Win
December 29: Seattle — Win
January 2: at Wisconsin — Loss
January 5: Purdue — Win
January 9: Ohio State — Loss
January 13: at Northwestern — Win
January 16: at Maryland — Win
January 19: Nebraska — Win
January 24: at Indiana — Loss
January 27: USC — Win
January 30: North Carolina (Nashville) — Win
February 2: UCLA — Win
February 5: Michigan State — Loss
February 9: at Michigan — Win
February 12: at Purdue — Loss
February 16: Northwestern — Win
February 20: at Oregon — Win
February 23: at Washington — Win
February 28: Wisconsin — Win
March 3: at Rutgers — Win
March 6: Iowa — Win
Predicting Illinois’ Losses
I predict Illinois will suffer seven losses this season: at Texas Tech, at Duke, at Wisconsin, against Ohio State, at Indiana, against Michigan State and at Purdue.
Most of these losses will come on the road, but I also have the Illini dropping two games at home against Ohio State and Michigan State. The Ohio State game feels like a potential trap, especially with students away from campus. Meanwhile, Illinois has struggled against Michigan State in recent years, even at the State Farm Center.
There are several other games that could go either way in Big Ten play, and the Illini will inevitably drop a game or two in which they are favored. I considered picking Maryland to beat Illinois, given the Terrapins’ recent success against the Illini, but ultimately decided to side with Illinois.
I also predict Illinois will enter the Big Ten Tournament on a six-game winning streak, carrying plenty of momentum into the postseason.
Final Record and Postseason Predictions
My projections give Illinois a 25-7 overall record and a 15-5 mark in Big Ten play. I believe a 15-5 conference record will be enough for the Illini to claim at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season title and earn the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
That resume should also put Illinois in position to earn a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, setting the stage for another deep March run.
These predictions will be adjusted as the season progresses, but my official preseason forecast is for Illinois to finish 25-7 overall, 15-5 in the Big Ten, win the regular-season conference title and earn a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.