F1 Bahrain GP long runs: Max Verstappen the favourite in Malaysia?

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Max Verstappen emerged as the fastest driver in the long runs during the second free practice session for the Formula 1 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia. The Red Bull driver was running on medium tyres and, after adjusting for the different stint lengths and tyre compounds, came out ahead of the competition.

George Russell (+0.19s) in the Mercedes and Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc (+0.32s) followed in second and third. Red Bull also left a strong impression both over a single lap and across the long-run distance. After Friday's practice sessions, this suggests a slight advantage for the winner of the most recent Malaysian Grand Prix, although the gaps at the front are still too small to establish a clear competitive order.

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Is the Mercedes update not working?

Mercedes' performance was particularly interesting, as the team arrived in Malaysia with an extensive update package. However, after the first two practice sessions, it is still too early to make a definitive assessment of how well the new components are working and what potential the revised car actually has.

Compared with the previous weekend in Azerbaijan, Mercedes appears to have lost some pace, although the Malaysian circuit has historically been a difficult track for the team. With its abrasive asphalt and numerous high- and medium-speed corners, the circuit traditionally places significant demands on the tyres.

Mercedes has repeatedly struggled in this area in the past. For that reason, Malaysia cannot necessarily be considered a classic Mercedes track, which makes it even more difficult to assess the true impact of the update package.

McLaren surprisingly loses time in sector two

The situation at McLaren looks somewhat different. Lando Norris finished fourth in the long-run analysis, 0.43 seconds per lap behind Verstappen. Oscar Piastri was sixth, 0.78 seconds behind the Red Bull driver. This suggests that McLaren is currently the fourth force behind Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari.

It was already noticeable over a single lap that McLaren was particularly losing time in the second sector. This is noteworthy because the medium- and high-speed corners in that sector should theoretically play to the car's strengths. Instead, the team appeared more competitive in sectors one and three, where top speed plays a greater role.

One possible explanation could be the set-up. It is conceivable that McLaren was running with relatively low downforce and therefore losing time through the faster corners. Whether this is actually a set-up-related issue or whether other factors are playing a role will only become clear after further analysis.

Alpine leads tightly-packed midfield

In the midfield, a close battle between Alpine, Racing Bulls and Audi is emerging. Pierre Gasly was the fastest driver in this group, with a deficit of 1.28 seconds per lap. Liam Lawson (+1.63s) and Nico Hülkenberg (+1.75s) also put together competitive long runs.

Audi therefore appears to be much better suited to Malaysia than it was at the previous race weekend in Baku. While top speed played a particularly important role on the street circuit in Azerbaijan, the demands in Malaysia are more heavily influenced by cornering performance and tire management. This could suit Audi's package.

Aston Martin (+1.97s) also looked improved compared with the previous race weekend in Baku. As with Audi, Aston Martin could benefit from the reduced importance of top speed compared with Baku.

The long runs were less encouraging for Haas (+2.04s), Williams (+2.58s) and Cadillac (+2.92s). The combination of high tyre degradation and the medium-speed corners appears to be presenting these teams with a significant challenge.

High tyre deg points towards two-stop strategy

A key factor during the second free practice session was the expected probability of rain. With precipitation forecast towards the end of the session, many teams brought forward their long runs and began collecting race data early. In the end, the rain stayed away, meaning that a particularly large number of representative long-run laps was completed.

Once again, the session demonstrated just how heavily the tyres are being stressed in Malaysia. The abrasive asphalt, combined with the numerous high- and medium-speed corners, creates a high level of tyre load. Because of the large corner radii, drivers spend a relatively long time under high lateral loads, which further increases tyre degradation.

Both the C4 soft tyre and the C3 medium tyre showed average degradation of around three-tenths of a second per lap. This is a relatively high figure and is likely to have a major influence on the teams' strategic considerations.

If tyre degradation does not decrease significantly over the remainder of the weekend, a two-stop race appears increasingly likely. It is also noteworthy that no team ran the hard tyre during the second free practice session. The teams are likely to have deliberately saved the C2 compound for Sunday in order to have as many fresh sets of tyres as possible available for the race.

Read Also: George Russell: "Off the pace" Mercedes F1 car needs tweaking at Sepang

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