Yankees Are Giving Bettors Plenty of Reasons to Believe
· Yahoo Sports
The Los Angeles Dodgers are still the team everyone has to beat. But the New York Yankees are giving bettors plenty of reasons to believe that somebody else could finally end their reign.
The Dodgers remain the clear favorites to win the World Series with Oddscheckers listing them at +175, giving them an implied 36% probability of winning it all. That would make a third consecutive championship and the 10th World Series title in franchise history.
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Yet the betting market is starting to rally behind the Yankees.
New York is sitting at +700, good for a 13% implied probability, but it has attracted an enormous 40% of the World Series wagers received this week.
As Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers explained, “Bettors are rallying behind the NY Yankees for the World Series this week. At +700, the Yankees have received 40% of World Series wagers. LA Dodgers continue to lead the betting at +175 and have a 36% implied chance of clinching a landmark 10th World Series title.”
That’s why there is a reason for that optimism.
The Yankees have been remarkably consistent despite dealing with major injuries, including the lengthy absence of Aaron Judge. They entered Sunday’s game with an 85-63 record and had won 19 of their previous 30 games. They then beat the Mets 2-0 behind another dominant performance from Cam Schlittler.
Yes, the Yankees may not be the favorite.
But they are becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss.
Yankees Have Enough Offense and Pitching to Win It All
The most encouraging part of the Yankees’ season may be that they haven’t needed one player to carry them every night.
Giancarlo Stanton has been limited, and Judge missed 85 games with a fractured rib. Yet New York has continued to produce. The Yankees have scored 677 runs through 149 games, averaging 4.54 runs per game, while hitting 202 home runs.
That isn’t an overwhelming offensive attack by Yankees standards.
But it has been consistent enough.
Cody Bellinger has provided a .777 OPS, while Jorge Polanco has been one of the team’s better offensive performers. Even with Judge’s extended absence, the Yankees have found enough production throughout the lineup to remain one of the American League’s best teams.
And Judge is finally back.
His numbers since returning haven’t been spectacular, but simply having the reigning superstar available for the postseason changes the equation. He went 3-for-14 in his first four games back, but manager Aaron Boone has been encouraged by his swing decisions and timing.
Then there is the pitching.
That might ultimately be what gives the Yankees their best chance.
Cam Schlittler has emerged as a legitimate ace. The righty entered Sunday’s game with a 13-6 record and 2.01 ERA before throwing six innings of one-hit ball against the Mets. He struck out nine and lowered his league-leading ERA to 1.95.
That is a massive factor for New York.
Gerrit Cole has also provided quality innings since returning from Tommy John surgery, although his recent struggles against the Mets demonstrate that he isn’t invincible.
The Yankees don’t need perfect pitching. They need good pitching, timely hitting and Judge healthy.
They have a legitimate chance of getting all three.
Dodgers Are Still the Team to Beat, But Yanks Have a Chance
It would be foolish to pretend the Dodgers suddenly aren’t the favorites.
They have won two straight World Series and entered September looking like the most complete team in baseball. Even after Sunday’s 6-4 loss to Miami, Los Angeles is still 90-59 and remains in excellent position heading into the postseason.
But there are reasons to think this postseason could be different.
The biggest is Ohtani.
The Dodgers placed their superstar on the injured list because of left knee and right biceps issues, with the move designed to give him time to recover before the postseason. Ohtani has still produced 30 home runs and 80 RBIs while posting a 1.79 ERA in his limited pitching work, but he hasn’t pitched since July and is not expected to return to the mound this season.
That’s a major deal.
The Dodgers can still win without Ohtani pitching. They can probably win without him for stretches offensively.
But asking them to win another championship without their biggest weapon at full strength is a different proposition.
That is where the Yankees come in.
New York has survived injuries, maintained a winning pace and developed a potential postseason ace in Schlittler. If Judge is healthy and the rest of the lineup continues producing, the Yankees have enough offense to challenge anyone.
The last time the Yankees won the World Series was 2009.
The Dodgers are still the frontrunners to win it all again.
But at +700, with 40% of this week’s wagers coming their way, the Yankees are clearly becoming the team bettors believe can stop them.
And maybe that is the most important development of all.
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