2026 College Football Week 1 Best Bets: Eight picks for Sept 4-7 including LSU, Notre Dame, Indiana, Texas
· Yahoo Sports
We have a loaded Week 1 slate that kicks off Thursday, September 4 and stretches all the way to Labor Day on Monday, September 7. I have action all weekend starting on Friday with Miami taking a trip to California to face Stanford, and ended with SMU taking on the 1-0 Florida State Seminoles. Let's get started! Game odds are courtesy of DraftKings. Here are my best bets for Week 1 in College Football. Best of luck!
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#7 Miami (-24.5) at Stanford: O/U 48.5
Stanford's new head coach, Tavita Pritchard, opened his Cardinals career with an insane 37-27 win over Hawaii, but he will have his work cut out for him with Miami coming to town. Stanford's defense ranked 107th in EPA per pass last season and they'll run into what could end up being one of the best passing attacks in the country.
Miami new QB Darian Mensah (Duke) is a dog and he's my pick to win the Heisman. Miami has at least half a dozen legit weapons around Mensah like WR Malachi Toney, RB Mark Fletcher Jr., RB CharMar Brown, and RB Girard Pringle who all retuned from last year, plus the arrival of WRs Cooper Barkate (Duke), Cam Vaughn (WVU), and Vandrevivus Jacobs (South Carolina). Hawaii versus Stanford was fun, but I don't think the Cardinals will have any with the Hurricanes. I think Miami's offense could score at least three times in the first half and the Hurricanes defense should have no problems limiting Stanford QB Davis Warren, especially since Miami has film on Stanford and not vice versa.
Pick: Miami 1H -13.5 (1 unit)
Ohio at Nebraska (-23.5): O/U 46.5
The Ohio Bobcats have just one starter back on offense from a year ago. The Bobcats replace the entire starting offensive line and will miss their star quarterback, Parker Navarro. Nick Polous was named the starter and he threw eight total passes last year, and went 22-of-49 (44.9%) as a freshman.
Nebraska will be led by QB Anthony Colandrea (UNLV, Virginia) who is a dual threat option that gives the Huskers something they didn't have with Dylan Raiola over the past two seasons. The Cornhuskers switched to the 4-2-5 defense this season with a switch in their defensive coordinator (Rob Aurich, SDSU), so as long as there aren't any defensive breakdowns early, I think Nebraska can cover.
The Cornhuskers put up 68 and 59 points in Weeks 2 and 3 versus Akron and Houston Christian last season. I think Nebraska's offense comes to play and covers the -23.5 spread. I like the first half -13.5 too. Matt Rhule believes this could be his best team in four years with Nebraska. If that's true, they should roll Ohio.
Pick: Nebraska -23.5 (1 unit)
North Texas at #6 Indiana (-40.5): O/U 56.5
North Texas has so much turnover on its roster, I am not sure how they hang with Indiana. The Mean Green's coaching staff opted for Oklahoma State following Eric Morris, as did most of the main contributors on the field. Indiana comes into the season with a slinger at QB in Josh Hoover (TCU), and some new talent around him a la RB Turbo Richard (Boston College) and WR Nick Marsh (MSU). I see North Texas struggling early with short drives and Indiana lighting it up through the air with plenty of play action to allow Hoover to get comfortable. I like Indiana to score at least 28 points in the first half, which may seem like a big number, but it's manageable. Curt Cignetti will have the bench in for the fourth.
Pick: Indiana 1H Team Total Over 27.5 (1 unit)
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Ball State at #1 Ohio State (-40.5): O/U 56.5
Texas State at #5 Texas (-29.5): O/U 59.5
The next two handicaps are pretty simple. Ohio State and Texas meet in Week 2 for one of the many candidates for game of the year. In my mind, Ohio State and Texas will be taking chill pills at halftime of Week 1 and all starters will be pulled by the fourth quarter to prepare for an all-out war in Austin. Getting in and out healthy with good reps will be the goal for both teams. I will take a shot on Ohio State's Team Total Under 52.5 and Texas' Team Total Under 45.5. The Longhorns odds are an alternate total rather than the 44.5.
Picks: Ohio State Team Total Under 52.5 (1 unit), Texas Team Total Under 45.5 (1 unit)
Clemson at #11 LSU (-10): O/U 52.5
No matter what you think of Lane Kiffin, we can agree he's brought offense to wherever he's been. With Ole Miss, Kiffin’s teams averaged at least 6.6 points per game in the first quarter and ranked in the top 31 five out of six seasons.
2025: 7.0 (T-31st)
2024: 10.3 (4th)
2023: 9.4 (7th)
2022: 8.6 (14th)
2021: 6.6 (54th)
2020: 8.3 (27th)
Enter QB Sam Leavitt (Arizona State), RB Dilin Jones (Wisconsin), WR Jayce Brown (Kansas State), WR Jackson Harris (Hawaii, Stanford), plus star TE Trey’Dez Green and RB Harlem Berry are back. This offense will be night and day from the 101st-ranked 22.8 points per game and their 120th-ranked 3.4 first quarter points per game.
Death Valley will be rocking and Lane Kiffin should have a game script together to march down the field on the first two drives and find the end zone at least once. Last season it was Clemson 3, LSU 0 in the first quarter. I doubt that type of first quarter happens again. The LSU first quarter Team Total Over 6.5 opened at -210, so I will take LSU to cover the first quarter spread of -2.5 up to 3.5 for plus-money.
Pick: LSU 1Q -2.5 (1 unit)
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#4 Notre Dame (-20.5) vs Wisconsin: O/U 46.5
One thing about both these teams, they will have stacked defenses. Notre Dame will compete for the best 11 on defense in the country and for Wisconsin, well, defense was all they had to hang their hat on last season. I'll admit, QB Colton Joseph could end up being a winner at Wisconsin, but if we’re judging this team on its quarterback play in the last decade, there has been basically no difference makers.
Bottom line, I can’t trust the Wisconsin offense, but I can trust a Badgers defense that ranked top 40 in PPG and almost doubled its sacks (17 to 32). The Irish’s offense will have to establish a ground game early, and that will likely be the focal point post-Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. I see both teams running the rock into the ground and eating clock as much as possible. Early, it should be a feel-it-out process for both teams with all the changes on offense. I like the first half Under 24.5 points and lean the game total Under 46.5 to 47.5.
Pick: 1H Under 24.5 (1 unit)
#19 SMU (-3) at Florida State: O/U 53.5
I probably speak for a lot of people when I say that Florida State was unimpressive in the 34-17 Week 0 win over New Mexico State. The Aggies found success through the air (272 yards, 2 TDs) and went 10-for-17 on third downs against the Seminoles. There were a lot of red flags for Florida State and while some will get resolved this week, others won't.
SMU enters 2026 with QB Kevin Jennings back under center and an overhaul in talent. SMU loses 80% of their rushing yards from a year ago and 68% of its receiving, but have some talented guys that transferred in like RB Kendrick Raphael (Cal, NC State), WR Yannick Smith (ECU) and three P4 tight ends (FSU, Texas Tech, Texas A&M). SMU has an experienced defense that ranks second nationally in sacks since 2023 and limited opponents to 20.5 points per game last year (T-31st). I'll ride with SMU on Labor Day!
Pick: SMU ML (1 unit)
Week 1 Picks
Friday
1 unit: Miami 1H -13.5 (-115) at Stanford
Saturday
1 unit: Indiana 1H Team Total Over 27.5 (-130) vs North Texas
1 unit: Nebraska -23.5 (-118) vs Ohio
1 unit: Ohio State Team Total Under 52.5 (-115) vs Ball State
1 unit: Texas Team Total Under 45.5 (-145) vs Texas State
1 unit: LSU 1Q -2.5 (-128) vs Clemson
Sunday
1 unit: Notre Dame vs Wisconsin 1H Under 24.5 (-114)
Monday:
1 unit: SMU ML (-140) at Florida State
Week 0 Record: 1-2 -1.57 units
Week 1 College Football Articles:
Top 10 Heisman Trophy Rankings
Top 25 Poll
College Football Playoff Predictions
Game Preview: UCLA at California
Game Preview: UTEP at Oklahoma
Game Preview: Boise State at Oregon
Game Preview: Louisville vs Ole Miss
Game Preview: SMU at Florida State
Game Preview: Notre Dame vs Wisconsin
Game Preview: Clemson at LSU
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