Masters 2026: Your winner is probably already at the top of the leaderboard
· Yahoo Sports
AUGUSTA, Ga. — You know the old line about how you can’t win the Masters on Thursday, but you can lose it? Turns out you can come pretty close to winning it on Thursday after all … which is good news for everyone from Sam Burns and Rory McIlroy (both -5) down to Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler (both -2).
Why? Because history suggests that at Augusta, a fast start leads to a good finish. Of the 89 past Masters champions, 72 were inside the top 11 after the first round. Narrow the focus a bit, and the picture comes in sharper: Of the last 19 Masters champions, 18 were ranked in the top 11 after the first round. The only outlier: McIlroy, who won last year after finishing the first round T27, seven strokes off the lead.
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After the first round of the Masters, nine players are at -2 or better, and 16 at -1 or better. So it’s a fairly good bet that the winner is coming from that crew.
The greatest danger now, ironically, is looking too far ahead. Take it from one who knows: Patrick Reed, the 2018 champion who finished Thursday at -3, with two eagles.
“This is one of those places that the more you think about it, the more you think ahead, the more it bites you,” he said after his round Thursday. “When I won in '18, it was the first year I actually fully bought into just taking it day by day and shot by shot. I think that's what my recipe is, because when you get to the first major, you're always going to put too much pressure on yourself, you're always going to grind a little harder.”
Rory McIlroy and his caddie Harry Diamond shake hands on the 18th green during the first round of the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 09, 2026 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by Hector Vivas/Getty Images)Hector Vivas via Getty ImagesThe grind already chewed up several potential champions. Bryson DeChambeau’s homemade golf club was absolutely no use in the greenside bunker at 11 that devoured his ball and left him with a round-killing triple bogey before a +4 finish. Robert MacIntyre hit two balls in the water at 15 en route to a quadruple bogey. Jon Rahm finished his day at +6, down among seasoned former champions like Fred Couples (+6) and Angel Cabrera (+7).
One main reason why it was so important to get out to a good start today? The course is playing as easy as it likely will all week — and it’s not easy now. Just three holes — 2, 8 and 13, all par 5s — played at a field average under par on Thursday.
“The course is only going to get drier and firmer and faster as the week goes on,” McIlroy said. “Last year (the greens) got really fast and firm on Sunday, but I think you're going to see that for the next three days. There's still opportunities to shoot really, really good scores — look at Justin Rose last year on the final day — but it takes a very, very good, solid round of golf to do that.”
With spectacular weather predicted for the rest of the tournament, patrons will be happy, players not so much.
“The past few years we've gotten rain at some point in the week, early in the week,” Burns said. “You could definitely see it even from Monday to today how much firmer the greens are. They're only going to get firmer. I think as the golf course speeds up, it only gets more difficult out there, and I think it's going to be a really good test.”
The key to winning at the Masters is, first, understanding the course’s quirks, and second, adjusting over the course of the week. This week, the potential for firm, fast greens will make players take a different strategy coming into Friday.
“You're very defensive depending on where you are. To some pin locations you'll have to be defensive, period,” said Xander Schauffele (-2). “Kind of just got to hang in there. Anything can happen on this property, especially the way it's playing.”
Fortunately for Schauffele and eight others, the easiest way to have a low score on Sunday is to start with a low one on Thursday.