AL West Preview – Mariners Prospects: (Still) Plenty of Gas in the Tank
· Yahoo Sports
Doing the A’s and the Astros’ prospect previews was, to be honest, an exercise in schadenfreude. I had a great time doing it! But it’s time now for just freude, no schaden.
Evaluators Overview
Baseball America: 10th in organizational rankings, 4 prospects in Top 100 (SS Colt Emerson (#7), LHP Kade Anderson (#25), OF Lazaro Montes (#58), RHP Ryan Sloan (#60).
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Baseball Prospectus: 11th in organizational rankings, 5 Top-101 prospects (SS Colt Emerson (#14), LHP Kade Anderson (#28), RHP Ryan Sloan (#32), 2B Michael Arroyo (#35) OF Lazaro Montes (#97) .
FanGraphs: Org rank not updated, but ended 2025 ~6th, 7 Top-100 prospects: SS Colt Emerson (#11), RHP Ryan Sloan (#20), LHP Kade Anderson (#50), OF Jonny Farmelo (#51), OF Lazaro Montes (#66) 2B Michael Arroyo (#78), SS Felnin Celesten (#86).
MLB Pipeline: 8th in organizational rankings, 6 Top-100 prospects: SS Colt Emerson (#9), LHP Kade Anderson (#21), RHP Ryan Sloan (#33), OF Lazaro Montes (#43), 2B Michael Arroyo (#67), OF Jonny Farmelo (#78)
In summary, there are 4 consensus Top-100 prospects from across the organization: Colt Emerson (averaging 10th in the rankings), Kade Anderson (avg 31st), Ryan Sloan (avg 36th), and Laz Montes (avg 66th). There’s another three who are consensus top-100 or adjacents in Michael Arroyo, Jonny Farmelo and Felnin Celesten.
The Mariners’ current farm system represents the restocking of the cupboards, another wave that’s beginning to grow after the last washed George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, Bryce Miller and Matt Brash ashore. Will this wave of prospects match the group that’s produced, combined, a Rookie of the Year, 7 All-Star selections, 2 Silver Sluggers, a Gold Glove, a Home Run Derby Championship, and 5 top-15 MVP finishes in four seasons?
No, probably not. The drop-off is steep after the top 12 or 13 prospects. There’s no longer a seemingly-endless supply of at least replacement level talent keeping Seattle’s farm in the second tier of organizations, and you can’t count only on your top-end guys to succeed – you have to hit on some breakouts from the depths.
That being said, the Mariners have put together a farm system that’s particularly rich at the top, even as they have traded away top-end talent; Harry Ford and Jurrangelo Cijntje (traded this offseason for José Ferrer and Brendan Donovan respectively) both make the back-half of most publications’ top-100 lists, and Tai Peete was also a top-10 prospect in the system. After those trades, MLB Pipeline still has the Mariners tied for the most top-100 prospects.
We are lucky enough to have Max Ellingsen, professional Ball Knower, writing prospect evals and content for Lookout Landing, which means you are all lucky enough to get to read his work, including the prospect rankings series that is currently underway. With that being said, it would be redundant and silly for me to give you prospect by prospect breakdowns for our top players. Instead, I’ll break this out by approximate ETA and give a high-level overview of who and what is to come, focusing on players in our informal top 4 tiers of prospects and when you might see them.
2026/2027:
Tier 1: Despite speculation that Colt Emerson might start the season at SS while J.P. Crawford recovers from his shoulder woes, the Mariners shut that down by assigning him to the Minors just this last weekend. It’s the right decision – 20-year-old Emerson should be given the time he needs to develop and be Ready, rather than be rushed up as an injury stop-gap and then sent back down. Emerson didn’t look as overwhelmed as he did last spring, but he still struck out twice as much as he walked, looking overmatched against the top pitching talent he faced. There’s no need to disrupt his development at this point, especially because he doesn’t need that much more time to cook – you’ll probably see Emerson up this summer, where he has a chance to be crucial to the Mariners’ playoff run.
Kade Anderson is a lefty starter with two plus breaking balls and a fastball that plays up in the zone. Are you sold yet? You should be. That’s basically all we need to say. He’s an incredibly polished 21-year-old who probably would be in the starting rotation for some teams with a weak staff. The Mariners do not, probably to his benefit – again, no need to rush a prospect who could be good now if he could be great in a year or so. He’ll be up next summer at the latest.
Tier 2: Michael Arroyo has been championed by our own John Trupin for long enough that we’ve all grown used to believing in him, but the national landscape has finally caught up to John. He’s well-regarded as a hitter at this point, shaking off the concerns about his 5’9” frame, showing a little bit of power as well. He’s been moved from shortstop to second, mostly for Seattle’s embarrassment of riches at the position, and will see time in the outfield. I expect to see him playing significant time this year if Refsnyder/Canzone and co. don’t get it done in right field.
Laz, Laz, Laz. You dirty bastards (and our own staff! shame!) predicted him as the biggest prospect faller for the Mariners in our annual predictions survey. You leave my large barely-adult son alone. Hating on Lazaro Montes is a symptom of 70-power and 6’5” jealousy. His pop is undeniable. His bat? Well. Put it down as potentially deniable. He has a tough road to staying in the outfield, even in the corners, but see him as a potential late 2027 DH fill-in to start.
Tier 4:Teddy McGraw is the best name in the system by far. Bryce Miller wishes he was named Teddy McGraw. If he can stay healthy, the starter-turned-reliever could see a debut as early as this season. His hot-and-heavy sinker and slider play off each other, and while two plus pitches does not a starter make, a reliever it just may, especially if it plays up in the pen. Call it late 2026 or early 2027.
2028/2029:
Tier 1: I’m not going to spoil too much for the aforementioned series, but Max messaged me today that he doesn’t recall a pitching prospect that he likes more than Ryan Sloan. There’s everything to love and nothing to hate about Sloan. There’s some minor disagreement about his ETA, and putting him as a 2028 debut might be conservative, but I am having a tough time seeing where he fits in the picture over the next two seasons given the currently-elite five starters the Mariners have.
Tier 2:Jonny Farmelo is a prospect I will be happy to be wrong about. I’ve never really understood the hype, but that is probably just a me thing. It might be that we’ve just yet to really see him play. He’s seen nothing but injuries over the last two seasons since being drafted in 2023. His talent has been displayed before, but only in short bursts, and I’m not sold enough yet on the bat to feel like it’s only a matter of time. He needs two full, healthy seasons to develop at the plate before sneaking his way onto the 2028 or 2029 lineup.
Tier 3:Felnin Celesten, the phoenix. A prospect that people loved to love from 2021-2023, and loved to hate the last couple of years. Chalk him up similar to Farmelo – he’s in a real prove-it moment this season. He doesn’t need to hit more than 15 homers if the bat can be plus with great placement into the gaps, and the glovework at shortstop can carry him. I have him as a better defender than Emerson, so perhaps Celesten will be what eventually moves Emerson to the hot corner in 2029.
Luke Stevenson is allegedly good, according to folks smarter than me. He’s in the same boat as Farmelo – I see him as having a decent floor but I think he’s got a real back-loaded bell curve of outcomes, unlikely to hit his top-end. I’d love to be wrong! He might be ready to backing up Cal by the end of 2028, giving the M’s a reliable backup catcher who can get Cal some more days at DH.
Tier 4: Korbyn Dickerson profiles, on the pessimistic end, as a dynamic center-fielder who can be a dependable 4th outfielder with plus defense at each spot. He’s a fun power-speed guy with a lot of upside but also a decent amount of downside. Planning on 2029 would give him a fantastic amount of runway to iron out some flaws on the hit tool.
2030 and Beyond:
Tier 3: Nick Becker won’t be in this tier for much longer. Max wrote in his prospect ranking write-up that Becker might have the highest upside in the system. Given that this is a farm heavy on the upside, that’s incredibly high praise. I’m worried about the janky swing, but he’s 18! This is stuff that can all be worked out. The middle-infield pipeline is thick and rich, so he’s got lots of time to develop. Tools galore – let’s check back in in 2030 and see where he’ll fit in.
What if Lazaro Montes had plus speed and a cannon for an arm? That might be Yorger Bautista. He’s just 18, signing during the 2025 J15 window, but the young outfielder has ridiculous potential. 70-grade pop in a 6’1” frame with the maturity of a player several years ahead of him should have you drooling. 2026 will be his first time stateside, so give him 4 years or so to develop.
Griffin Hugus, the funniest name in the system! The most nicknameable, for sure. The most currently Tommy-Johned. So, put the expectations back quite a bit. 2029 will be the first year we’ll be able to get him a real evaluation.
Tier 4: You’ve heard it first – Juan Rijo could be the real deal. I think that he has upside that rivals some of the prospects in the top tier of the system. I love, love, LOVE the swing – I love the bat path, I love the swing, and I think that as he grows into his frame, we can see true plus power and a plus bat. You don’t see 18-year-olds with this level of polish on the swing. No jank here! Like Bautista, let’s see him with 4 years to play stateside.
The Mariners are in a rare, blessed spot right now. The major-league club is ultra-competitive and has a wealth of cheap, controllable talent, while the farm is well-stocked with a dozen prospects that gives them the flexibility that every front office prizes. The Mariners can build a sustainable engine of consistent playoff appearances, extending their most key players now and letting this next wave fill in some gaps. Or, they can read the table, push in their chips, and go all in, now, and add great or elite talent for a shot at a title or two. Not a bad place to be.