Updated AI March Madness Picks: Who Does ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude Have Winning the Title?
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When it comes to assessing which of the 16 surviving teams have the best shot at winning the 2026 NCAA men's basketball championship, it might feel like we've heard from just about every human on the planet.
So let's see what the machines think.
We fed the Sweet Sixteen field into ChatGPT, Google Gemini, and Claude to get their computations on which team will earn the right to cut down the nets on April 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The latest March Madness odds have a quartet of teams clearly at the top:
Latest March Madness Odds
TeamNext OpponentMichigan+300No. 4 Alabama
Arizona+325No. 4 Arkansas
Duke+400No. 5 St. John's
Houston+700No. 3 Illinois
Purdue+1400No. 11 Texas
Illinois+1400No. 2 Houston
Iowa State+1600No. 6 Tennessee
UConn+2500No. 3 Michigan State
Michigan State+3000No. 2 UConn
St. John's+3000No. 1 Duke
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Here's a look at how the three most notable AI chatbots broke down the remainder of the March Madness bracket:
ChatGPT
Sweet Sixteen
East
(1) Duke 78, (5) St. John’s 70
(3) Michigan State 74, (2) UConn 71
South
(2) Houston 69, (3) Illinois 64
(4) Nebraska 76, (9) Iowa 73
West
(1) Arizona 82, (4) Arkansas 75
(2) Purdue 77, (11) Texas 68
Midwest
(1) Michigan 81, (4) Alabama 76
(2) Iowa State 72, (6) Tennessee 66
Elite Eight
East Final
(1) Duke 75, (3) Michigan State 71
South Final
(2) Houston 67, (4) Nebraska 60
West Final
(1) Arizona 79, (2) Purdue 74
Midwest Final
(1) Michigan 77, (2) Iowa State 73
Final Four
(2) Houston 68, (1) Duke 65
(1) Arizona 83, (1) Michigan 78
🏆 National Championship
(2) Houston 66, (1) Arizona 62
ChatGPT made the boldest call of the three, taking the Cougars to edge out favored Arizona for their elusive first NCAA men's basketball championship.
The defending runners-up, according to ChatGPT, will roll to victory on the strength of a defense that surrendered just 94 total points in tournament-opening victories over Idaho and Texas A&M. And despite a significant boost in competition level, ChatGPT doesn't see Houston's punishing D giving up more than 65 points in a game the rest of the way.
Granted, those who like scoring are probably wishing for a more exciting title game matchup, but they'll need to wait for Claude's prognostication for their dreams to come true.
Gemini
Sweet Sixteen
East
(1) Duke 72, (5) St. John’s 68
(2) UConn 75, (3) Michigan State 66
South
(2) Houston 71, (3) Illinois 65
(4) Nebraska 74, (9) Iowa 70
West
(1) Arizona 85, (4) Arkansas 78
(2) Purdue 80, (11) Texas 72
Midwest
(1) Michigan 88, (4) Alabama 82
(2) Iowa State 69, (6) Tennessee 64
Elite Eight
East Final
(2) UConn 70, (1) Duke 67
South Final
(2) Houston 66, (4) Nebraska 58
West Final
(1) Arizona 77, (2) Purdue 74
Midwest Final
(1) Michigan 76, (2) Iowa State 71
Final Four
(2) Houston 65, (2) UConn 63
(1) Arizona 81, (1) Michigan 79
🏆 National Championship
(1) Arizona 74, (2) Houston 70
Gemini's championship matchup is the same as ChatGPT's, but the outcome is quite different. Google's chatbot is picking the Wildcats to upend Houston in a repeat of the Big 12 Championship.
The Wildcats come into the Sweet Sixteen as the No. 2 favorite, but would you really be that surprised if they moved into the top spot at some point, even if the Wolverines remain alive? Arizona averaged 85 points in its two tournament-opening victories and would likely be favored against any team it faced the rest of the way.
A return date with Houston would be a terrific matchup (especially given the show both teams put on in the Big 12 title game), so I personally hope Gemini is correct.
Claude
Sweet Sixteen
East
(1) Duke 79, (5) St. John's 71
(2) UConn 73, (3) Michigan State 69
South
(2) Houston 68, (3) Illinois 62
(4) Nebraska 76, (9) Iowa 73
West
(1) Arizona 82, (4) Arkansas 75
(2) Purdue 77, (11) Texas 70
Midwest
(1) Michigan 85, (4) Alabama 79
(2) Iowa State 72, (6) Tennessee 67
Elite Eight
East Final
(1) Duke 84, (2) UConn 78
South Final
(2) Houston 71, (4) Nebraska 65
West Final
(1) Arizona 80, (2) Purdue 76
Midwest Final
(1) Michigan 81, (2) Iowa State 74
Final Four
(1) Duke 75, (2) Houston 72
(1) Arizona 83, (1) Michigan 80
🏆 National Championship
(1) Arizona 78, (1) Duke 74
Our only 1-vs.-1 matchup comes courtesy of Claude, which has the Wildcats and the Blue Devils engaging in an instant classic that Arizona pulls out by a slim margin.
We can only hope that the path that Claude has mapped out for the Wildcats actually comes to fruition, because those last three games look just awesome. Imagine Arizona pulling out a high-scoring four-point win over Purdue, followed by a thrilling triumph over fellow No. 1 Michigan and a date with a Duke side looking for its first title in 11 years.
Of the three paths to the Final Four and NCAA title game, I like Claude's the best (though as someone who took Houston to win it all, it's also the one I like the least).
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