Week 10 College Football Playoff predictions: Ohio State on the ropes, Indiana survives

November 2, 2026 · Yahoo Sports

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The month of November is here, and on Tuesday we will finally have our first College Football Playoff rankings from the selection committee. When those rankings are out, we will have a better idea of how the committees stacks up some of the teams in the top 12 range.

Until then, there are still a ton of results to parse through after another wild Saturday in college football. Ohio State’s first game without Julian Sayin went about as poorly as possible, as the Buckeyes fell to USC and picked up their second loss on the season, eliminating their margin for error throughout the month of November. Miami (FL) maintained its No. 1 ranking with a very impressive win against North Carolina on the road.

Indiana nearly joined its Big Ten rivals with a second loss in this game, but the Hoosiers stayed afloat with an overtime win against Minnesota in a game that Josh Hoover didn’t finish.

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Week 10 brings one of the best college football slates in recent memory, with a number of top 10 and top 25 matchups all across the country. Before that lineup inevitably shakes up the projected playoff field again, we simmed the rest of the season following Week 9’s results to predict who will be in the CFP in just over a month.

1. Miami (FL) (12-1, ACC Champion)

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Miami remains the No. 1 team in the country after surviving an upset scare from North Carolina on the road on Saturday night. The Canes still look like a juggernaut on offense, but the defense isn’t quite playing at the level that it did a year ago. If the Hurricanes are going to win a national championship, that side of the ball will have to turn around. Both units for Miami will get massive tests on Saturday night when they head to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in one of the biggest games of the year.

2. UCLA (12-1, Big Ten Champion)

UCLA continues to win, even if it was just against lowly Nevada. The Bruins have a suffocating defense in Bob Chesney’s first year, and they pair a physical running game with a quarterback in Ty Dieffenbach who does what he is asked and is more than competent at the position. UCLA still has some of its toughest tests ahead, including a tricky road trip to Minnesota for an early kickoff on Saturday.

Despite that game and a relatively unproven team and staff, Ohio State and Indiana both look extremely shaky on offense heading into the month of November. That leaves the Bruins, who have flaws but also a reliable formula, as a real candidate to take the Big Ten title.

3. Notre Dame (11-1)

Notre Dame was pretty dreadful up front in the first half against Navy on Saturday, but the Irish eventually put it together and ran away with a 35-13 win. It was an obvious lookahead spot for the Irish, even against a rival, before a home game against top-ranked Miami coming next week.

The Irish are in a very interesting spot going into next week. They have seven cupcake wins and one loss to a very good team in BYU. To this point, the CFP resume for Marcus Freeman and company is starting to look a lot like it did last season, when the Irish were left out. Would Notre Dame be left out again at 10-2 with a loss to Miami? Probably not, but the public is getting sick and tired of this pattern in South Bend. A win on Saturday would squash that narrative.

4. Georgia (11-2, SEC Champion)

Georgia got back on track on Saturday, dismantling Florida in a game that was played at a “neutral site” in Atlanta. The Bulldogs, despite their flaws, still look like the best team in the SEC and have a formula that is easy to rely on with Kirby Smart at the helm. Now, Georgia can officially establish itself as the top dog in the conference with a road win over Ole Miss on Saturday. A loss would put Smart and company in a position with two losses that they haven’t been in for a few years now.

5. Utah (12-1, Big 12 Champion)

Utah took apart a Cincinnati team that just took out Texas Tech on Saturday, so it’s clear that the Utes are a force to be reckoned with in the Big 12. How they look when they get outside of Big 12 competition remains to be seen, but Utah has a stout defense and a strong running game to lean on.

On Saturday, Morgan Scalley and company get to prove that they are the top dogs in the Big 12. The Utes will welcome BYU to Salt Lake City for a game that, for whatever reason, is being played early in the day. It’s quite possibly the only top 10 matchup of the year in the Big 12, and the winner will have the inside track to the conference title and a spot in the CFP.

6. Ole Miss (10-2)

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Ole Miss ran away from Auburn in the second half on Saturday to remain at just two losses on the season and stick right in the middle of the CFP race. On Saturday, the Rebels have their biggest game of the season when Georgia comes to town. A win there would make the Rebels one of the favorites in the SEC and the CFP race, while a loss puts their hopes of reaching the postseason down to almost zero.

7. LSU (10-3, SEC Runner-Up)

LSU kind of fell off the radar after two losses earlier in the season against Kentucky and Ole Miss, but Lane Kiffin’s squad is quietly getting healthier and is still floating around with two losses. Now, the Tigers have a number of marquee home games in a row, and they likely need to win all of them in order to stay in the conference title race and the CFP hunt. That gauntlet starts on Saturday when Alabama comes to Death Valley for one of the SEC’s best rivalries, and potentially a CFP eliminator game.

8. Indiana (11-2, Big Ten Runner-Up)

Indiana hung on and found a way to win on Saturday, taking down Minnesota 23-16 in overtime thanks to a 60-yard field goal to force free football. Curt Cignetti and company are still in a good spot on paper with just one loss and now with an inside track to the conference title game, but the vibes in Bloomington are anything but great. The defense is still very good, but the offense has been downright dreadful and benched a banged-up Josh Hoover for Grant Wilson on Saturday. The Hoosiers have a bye before USC comes to town in a few weeks.

9. Kentucky (10-2)

Kentucky had Halloween off, and now Will Stein and the Wildcats will really kick their chase for an SEC title and a CFP berth into gear. The Wildcats have some challenging tests ahead, but they have some margin for error with just one loss on the record so far, but it won’t be easy to cement themselves as the breakout team of the season. That road starts on Saturday in Knoxville against Tennessee before two more games against ranked opponents in Florida and Missouri. If Kentucky can finish the year 3-1 over the next four weeks, it will very likely be in the CFP.

10. Ohio State (10-2)

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Ohio State has some serious problems in front of it after Luke Fahey looked like a deer in the headlights in a loss to USC on Saturday. Fahey was far from the only problem for Ryan Day and company in this game, but the Buckeyes are now under the microscope with two losses and Julian Sayin’s return still far away.

The Buckeyes do have a manageable schedule from now until the end of the regular season, so there is a silver lining here. Ohio State hosts Oregon, which has offensive problems of its own, on Saturday and get both Northwestern and Michigan at home later this month. That should be enough for it to sneak into the CFP.

11. BYU (10-2)

BYU escaped a sluggish performance against Arizona State on Saturday, but a letdown was predictable ahead of the Holy War against Utah coming up on Saturday. A loss to the Utes doesn’t crush BYU’s CFP hopes, especially with the win over Notre Dame already on its resume, but a win would almost cement the Cougars as a CFP team.

12. Boise State (12-1, Pac-12 Champion)

Boise State survived arguably the most entertaining and dramatic game of Saturday’s slate late at night, beating Texas State 46-45 despite blowing a 28-3 lead and having to come back from down double digits in the fourth quarter. While that may not have been an encouraging performance, especially for what may happen if the Broncos do get into the CFP, it keeps their Pac-12 title chase right on track.

It’s now hard not to see a path to 11-1 and a Pac-12 title game berth for Spencer Danielson and the Broncos, but New Mexico is the Mountain West favorite and broke into the top 25 in the AP poll this week. If Boise State isn’t impressive and convincing over the next three games, the Lobos may just pass them for this spot.

Next Out: Texas (9-3), Texas Tech (10-2), Houston (10-3, Big 12 Runner-Up), Alabama (9-3), Tennessee (9-3), Wake Forest (10-3, ACC Runner-Up)

First Round Predictions

No. 5 Utah defeats No. 12 Boise State

No. 6 Ole Miss defeats No. 11 BYU

No. 7 LSU defeats No. 10 Ohio State

No. 9 Kentucky defeats No. 8 Indiana

Quarterfinal Predictions

No. 1 Miami (FL) defeats No. 9 Kentucky

No. 7 LSU defeats No. 2 UCLA

No. 3 Notre Dame defeats No. 6 Ole Miss

No. 4 Georgia defeats No. 5 Utah

Semifinal Predictions

No. 1 Miami (FL) defeats No. 4 Georgia

No. 3 Notre Dame defeats No. 7 LSU

National Championship

No. 1 Miami (FL) defeats No. 3 Notre Dame

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