Election cheat sheet: These early races could tell us where the midterms are headed
· Axios
You won't need to stay up all night Tuesday to spot a big Democratic wave in the 2026 midterm elections.
- But it could take days — or even weeks — to know whether Republicans have survived a smaller one and held on to the House or Senate.
Why it matters: A handful of early results in key states and congressional districts will tell us whether Democrats are headed for a landslide or disappointment.
Visit sport-tr.bet for more information.
What we're watching: Florida, Florida, Florida.
- Most polls close at 7pm ET, and the state counts quickly — ready for release when the Panhandle finally calls it a night an hour later.
At 8:01pm, refresh your browser and watch FL-14. The great mid-cycle redistricting wars transformed this Tampa-based district from Harris +8 to Trump +11.
- If Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor survives, Republicans can all but kiss their majority goodbye, according to party strategists.
- Next up is FL-25. The country's most expensive general election race is playing out in a district that went from Harris +4 to Trump +9. If Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz's race is close — or too close to call early in the night — House Republicans can keep hope alive.
While you're at it, this is a good time to check on South Carolina's Senate race, where polls close at 7pm and the state counts relatively fast.
- If Sen. Darline Graham loses to Annie Andrews in the Trump +18 state, Senate Republicans can say goodbye to their majority. (And they'll be sweating if it's close.)
- "Underperformance is rarely isolated," said Jason Thielman, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2024. "If you see the GOP underperforming early in the East, it is likely going to continue as you move further West."
At 9pm, check in on Virginia: The commonwealth's polls close at 7pm, but historically tight races often aren't called until the 9pm hour.
- If Democrats flip VA-01, a Trump +5 seat, they're in for a very good night.
- If they flip VA-05, a Trump +12 seat, they're in for a great night.
Between the lines: VA-02 could tell us whether a strong Republican candidate can survive a Democratic wave, and whether Speaker Mike Johnson can keep his job.
- Trump carried the Hampton Roads district by just 0.2 percentage points in 2024, while Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans won by 3.8 points. The AP didn't call her race until 5:28pm ET the following Wednesday.
- GOP strategists believe Kiggans has run a nearly flawless campaign. If even she gets swept away in a 50-50 district, other Republicans in a low-single-digit Trump seat should brace for impact.
- If she holds on, that could bode well for Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and Rep. Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race.
The intrigue: Also keep an eye on Kentucky's 6th District. Polls close there at 6pm ET, but the state takes a more genteel approach to counting ballots. If Democrats take the open Lexington-based seat (Trump +15), Republicans will be downing their bourbon. Neat.
Moving west: Polls close in Ohio at 7:30pm and Texas at 8pm ET, but Texas counts faster.
- If Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds on, Republicans still have a path to keeping their Senate majority.
- Iowa polls close at 9pm ET. If Hinson is looking good, the night might not be as bad as many Republicans feared.
The bottom line: Don't stay up for the Senate results in either Maine or Alaska.
- Even a clear win (or defeat) for Collins may not be obvious until Wednesday. In 2020, when she won by nearly 9 percentage points, the AP didn't call the race until lunchtime Wednesday.
- In Alaska, with its ranked-choice voting, results could take weeks.