Ballon d’Or Preview: Odds, prediction, and how to watch

· Yahoo Sports

(Photo by FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images) | FIFA via Getty Images

For the first time in history, the prominent Ballon d’Or ceremony will be held in London. Besides a brief stint from 2010 to 2015 when the award was merged with FIFA’s World Player of the Year, it has traditionally been presented in various locations around Paris, France.

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Harry Kane is the heavy favorite, and a victory would break a few droughts. The last Bayern Munich winner was Karl-Heinz Rummenigge (1981). The last English winner was Michael Owen (2001). Furthermore, the last player to win the award who did not play for a French or Spanish club (or represent their national teams) was Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo (2008).

In addition to the coveted Ballon d’Or trophy, the presentation will also include the Kopa Trophy (best player under 21), Yashin Trophy (best goalkeeper), Gerd Müller Trophy (best goalscorer), Coach of the Year, Club of the Year, and Sócrates Award (best humanitarian work).

Streaming Info

  • Location: London Palladium, London, United Kingdom
  • Date: Monday, October 26th, 2026
  • Time: 6:00 PM local time (3:00 PM ET)
  • TV/Streaming:Paramount Plus, CBS Sports Golazo Network, DAZN, Official Website
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Odds

According to Polymarket, Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane has a 74% chance of winning the prestigious award. Over the summer, there was a lot of speculation that Kane might be out of the running because his teams lost in the semifinal stages of both the UEFA Champions League and the FIFA World Cup. However, thanks to general reason and a strong start to the 2026/27 season, Kane is back in the pole position.

Here are the resumes for each of the top contenders, spanning August 3, 2025, to July 19, 2026:

  • Harry Kane, Bayern Munich (74%): 73 goals, 8 assists, 5,207 minutes; Bundesliga champion and Golden Boot winner; DFB-Pokal champion and Golden Boot winner; Champions League semifinalist; World Cup third-place finish.
  • Lamine Yamal, FC Barcelona (19%): 25 goals, 20 assists, 4,562 minutes; La Liga champion and assist leader; Champions League quarterfinalist; World Cup winner.
  • Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid (5%): 58 goals, 13 assists, 4,876 minutes; La Liga Golden Boot winner; Champions League quarterfinalist and Golden Boot winner; World Cup fourth-place finish and Golden Boot winner; set a new record with 22 career World Cup goals.
  • Lionel Messi, Inter Miami (2%): 45 goals, 30 assists; MLS champion and Golden Boot winner; World Cup runner-up.

There are a number of other players who will receive votes but do not have a realistic chance of winning:

  • Michael Olise, Bayern Munich
  • Ousmane Dembélé, PSG (2025 Ballon d’Or winner)
  • Rodri, Manchester City (2024 Ballon d’Or winner)
  • Erling Haaland, Manchester City
  • Jude Bellingham, Real Madrid
  • Vinícius Júnior, Real Madrid
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, PSG

Prediction

Yamal and Mbappé will likely split ballots from Spanish-leaning voters. Dembélé won the Champions League again, but only logged 2,900 minutes and was publicly criticized for barely playing in his domestic league. Haaland carried Norway to new heights and won the domestic cup double, but that will not be enough to garner significant favor.

Harry Kane is the only choice. Kane had a historic season, scoring the most goals in Europe since Cristiano Ronaldo’s 2014/15 campaign. Bayern Munich also shattered the Bundesliga scoring record with 122 goals in 34 matches, while Kane’s England team achieved their best result since their 1966 World Cup victory.

A win would place Kane in elite company, making him only the fifth Englishman to claim the award:

  • Stanley Matthews, Blackpool (1956, inaugural year)
  • Bobby Charlton, Manchester United (1966)
  • Kevin Keegan, Hamburger SV (1978, 1979)
  • Michael Owen, Liverpool (2001)

Winner: Harry Kane, Bayern Munich

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