Bears QBs match J.J. McCarthy's Vikings stats in 1-in-416 million coincidence
· Yahoo Sports
What happened Sunday at Lambeau Field between the Packers and Bears was so statistically improbable that the odds of it happening were worse than winning the Powerball jackpot. And wouldn’t you know it, it has a connection to former Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
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Chicago quarterbacks Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent split the game, and each finished with passing statistics identical to one of McCarthy’s performances for the Vikings last season.
Keenum passed for 108 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. That’s identical to McCarthy’s performance against the Giants on Dec. 21, 2025, when he threw for 108 yards and an interception before a fractured hand knocked him out of the game at the half.
Bagent finished with 87 passing yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. Those are the exact numbers McCarthy produced in Minnesota’s 23-6 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field last season.
According to QBgami, the odds of two quarterbacks on the same team matching two separate stat lines from another quarterback in the same game are approximately 1 in 416.7 million.
Never seen anything like itigami.
— QBgami (@QBgami) October 11, 2026
Per our model, the odds of 2 QBs on the same team matching a shared QB’s stat lines in the same game (and at these exact numbers relative to the probability of the set as a whole) is roughly 1 in 416.7 million. https://t.co/n2gIQEiotZ