WNBA semifinals preview: Will Aces' and Liberty's playoff experience, star power outmatch Valkyries and Dream teams on the rise?

· Yahoo Sports

LAS VEGAS — Guess who’s back, back, back … back again. 

The Las Vegas Aces need no formal welcoming into the WNBA semifinals as they’ll play in their eighth consecutive penultimate round. The reigning champions reached the WNBA Finals four times and won three titles in the last four years. 

Visit newsbetsport.bond for more information.

The No. 3 seed Aces are joined by their former “superteam” counterpart. The pesky No. 8 seed New York Liberty knocked out the regular season’s winner, No. 1 Minnesota, in a first-of-its-kind upset. They feature two of the league’s best players, Liberty forward Breanna Stewart and Aces forward A’ja Wilson, who have traded MVPs and championships since their arrival on the scene. 

Each will face a newer entrant when the best-of-five semifinals begin on Sunday. The No. 4 Atlanta Dream are in the semifinals for the first time since 2018, when the top two seeds earned automatic berths. The No. 2 Golden State Valkyries secured their first playoff series win in franchise history to advance to the semis in their second year of existence. 

Here’s a look at the matchups, what makes each of the four a scary opponent at this point of the season, and the X-Factors in each series. 

Game 1: Sunday, 2 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 2: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Game 3: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2
*Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 11, TBD on ABC
*Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 14, TBD on ESPN

How New York got here: Swept No. 1 Lynx, 2-0, by 16 points each

How Atlanta got here: Swept No. 5 Mystics, 2-0, by a combined 33 points

Season series: Dream, 2-1*

*New York won in June, 104-90, but dropped two in three days to end the season. The finale was played without Stewart.

The Liberty start Jonquel Jones (6-6), Stewart (6-4), Leonie Fiebich (6-4), Pauline Astier (5-11)  and Sabrina Ionescu (5-11), while bringing an improved 6-11 Han Xu off the bench. Their size defensively frustrates opponents, a reason they advanced with relative ease against Minnesota. It starts with Stewart, a versatile two-time MVP with a 7-1 wingspan who’s at the top of her game after another FIBA World Cup MVP and bonkers stat line in the Liberty’s playoff opener. 

The Liberty are no standard No. 8 seed. The seven-game differential between them and the top-seeded Lynx was the smallest in the current playoff format, and is believed to be the slimmest of all time. Four of their five starters won the 2024 title together, and they appeared locked into the postseason after a roller coaster season that, again, included more stop-and-start injury woes. 

X-Factor: Leonie Fiebich will be named in this category a lot over the next week as a quality fourth option behind the Liberty’s big three, and their largest defensive asset aside from Stewart. Solid minutes from Han off the bench, and big-time buckets from the international rookie Astier will also be key. 

Looking outside the box a little, how about Ionescu’s defense? It will be key in a matchup of elite guards, and came in clutch in their 2024 championship season. Ionescu never fully rounded back into form after early-season injuries, and has rarely been a high-efficiency 3-point shooter. Yet, she can and does drain them at key moments, and in Barclays, they can quell opponents’ momentum for good. She’s a big-moment player who thrives in these situations. 

New York needs to take all precautions, because the Dream will tip passes and pick their pockets in a hurry. The Liberty have first-hand knowledge of that; they turned over the ball a season-high 20 times twice against the Dream. 

The three season leaders in steals are all in Atlanta: Rhyne Howard (100 total, 2.3 per game), Jordin Canada (82, 1.9 spg) and Angel Reese (77, spg 1.8). More than one-fifth of their scoring, on average, comes from points off turnovers. They are the second-best defense remaining in the playoffs behind the Valkyries. 

Rebounding will also be imperative as the Dream are one of the best in that category, as well as second-chance points, limiting second-chance points and paint points. Reese, the leader in that, won her first Defensive Player of the Year award this week as a key cog who can play every level, and provides an improved back-end stopper on the league’s third-best defensive team. 

X-Factor: Here’s another obvious selection: DeWanna Bonner. The 39-year-old veteran is undefeated in a Dream jersey after agreeing to a buyout with the Mercury. Her presence can’t be overstated in a postseason underscoring the importance of a championship-winning vet. In four of her seven games, she’s hit two 3-pointers as a vital floor spacer and scorer. 

And if we also look outside the box at Atlanta, can the key producers stay out of foul trouble against the big Liberty? Howard fouled out twice this year, hit five fouls five times, and is in the fourth percentile in total fouls (126). She fouled out in Game 2 after four in Game 1 against the Mystics. Reese led the league in personal fouls (160) and was in foul trouble in Game 1. The playoffs are a more physical game, often with controversial officiating calls. 

Game 1: Sunday, 4 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock
Game 2: Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. ET on Peacock/NBCSN
Game 3: Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET on Peacock/NBCSN
*Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 11, TBD on NBC/Peacock
*Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 14 on Peacock/NBCSN

How Las Vegas got here: Defeated No. 6 Fever, 2-1, by defending home court

How Golden State got here: Defeated No. 7 Wings, 2-1, in Game 3 comeback fashion

Season series: Aces, 3-0*

*All three games were played between May 31 and June 21. 

“Experience” is typically the word used ad nauseam to describe the Aces. The necessary “know-how” would also work. But let’s hand it over to head coach Becky Hammon, a wizard with the descriptors, to define what makes the Las Vegas roster dangerous, no matter the record or opponent. 

“Their minds for these positions is their greatest advantage; the mind for these moments,” Hammon said after the Game 3 win. “Whoever we face, we’ll have a game plan that I know we’ll be able to execute, especially defensively.” 

Hammon, Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray are 30-10 in their five-year playoff career together, consisting of four series sweeps (13 of those 30 wins), one series loss in total and three WNBA championships. Three of their last four playoff series went to an elimination game, and they won them all (the Finals were a sweep). 

Wilson is a four-time MVP en route to a fifth for a reason. It goes beyond her gaudy stat lines; she’s their last and most lethal line of defense. Gray is a mid-range dagger, a clutch buzzer-beating maestro drawing contact. And Young, the only one without a Finals MVP, is averaging a career-high 18.9 points per game while further establishing herself as a facilitator (career-high 6.8 assists per game ranks fourth). To be able to bring a three-time WNBA champion — Jewell Loyd won two with the Seattle Storm and is 10-0 in Finals games — off the bench is the bougiest of luxuries. 

X-Factor: Health and wellness will be paramount for the short-staffed Aces. Steph Talbot missed Game 3 of the first round with a lower leg injury. Though Hammon said an hour before tip-off it would be a game-time decision, Talbot sat on the bench in a boot for the contest. Hammon said “hopefully she should be good” for the semifinals. 

Young and Gray each played the full 40 minutes in Game 3. The Aces were already without starting forward NaLyssa Smith (left leg injury for the rest of the postseason). Guard Dana Evans, a key bench piece of their 2025 run, missed the first round with a knee injury and has been limited to 14 games all season. An Aces championship will hinge more heavily than ever on the Big 3 doing the work. 

“The biggest thing for us is rest and getting healthy,” Hammon said after the Game 3 win. “I want them to sleep, recover mentally. This was a grind. It’s just, it’s never easy. It’s not going to get easier with either team that we face.” 

The Aces took off Friday. They had two full days between winning Game 3 at home and playing in nearby San Francisco on Sunday. 

The best competitors search out any mental edge or slight off which to feed. The motivation for the Valkyries is valid. General manager Ohemaa Nyanin and head coach Natalie Nakase built their inaugural roster largely out of the expansion draft, which gave them a group of sixth and seventh players. Even their splashy free agent, Gabby Williams, came to town off a bumpy WNBA ride. The veteran had made it out of the first round only once until they clinched their berth on Friday. 

They’re a group bonded over being a down-the-bench option, and it’s resulted in the league’s best defense (99.1 defensive rating) amid a season of historic offensive performances. Their bond and commitment to play for “Ballhalla,” which has sold out every game of the team’s existence, is a major asset in a playoff format. 

The bench set the record for scoring with 35.9 points per game, outpacing the second-place Connecticut Sun (28.5) and the eighth-best Aces (21.5). The knock against them has long been that no one is that clutch offensive player, the one you want to have the ball in the waning seconds of a one-possession game. Williams should have put that to rest in recent weeks, especially with her performance against the Wings in Game 3. What was most intriguing about it was that Nakase felt comfortable enough and held enough depth on the bench that she sat Williams for half of the third quarter after a poor offensive start. 

X-Factor: Familiarity. Nakase won two WNBA titles with the Aces before accepting the job in Golden State. She and Hammon know each other well, and she obviously is deeply aware on a different level of the core trio’s best assets. Kiah Stokes, a defensive anchor for the Valks, won three titles with the Aces. Tiffany Hayes earned the Sixth Player award in her year in Las Vegas in 2024. 

We could see quite the coaching chess game on the West Coast this week as these two go back and forth with pieces who are intimately familiar with each other’s games. Considering Hammon saves ideas and actions for the playoffs, it’s not hard to imagine her disciple does the same. 

And their postseason experience levels aren’t as stark as those against the teams led by young stars that have already left the field. The Aces roster has a combined 338 playoff games (204-134, .603) with 17 championships to their names. The Valkyries sit at 201 (107-94, .532) with four titles. (Kayla Thornton won in New York in 2024.) 

One thing to monitor is Nakase’s health after she collapsed to the ground in the final minutes of Game 3. She continued to coach, but did not speak to reporters after the game. Assistant Kasib Powell said they were still learning more about what happened, but said she was acting fine and in great spirits. 

Read full story at source