Vikings vs. Buccaneers Week 3 preview: Mayfield's struggles, Turner's role, an X-factor, and more

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If the Vikings are going to improve to 3-0 this weekend, they’ll have to get through a desperate Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that really doesn’t want to fall into an 0-3 hole. Let’s dive into this week’s preview.

From the practice field: What they’re saying

The Vikings have a lot of respect for Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. That’s been clear all week. Mayfield is a two-time Pro Bowler who has averaged nearly 32 touchdown passes in his three full seasons with Tampa Bay, but the quality that several Vikings and coaches have highlighted is his competitiveness. Mayfield is a guy who will extend plays and lower his shoulder to pick up a first down himself if he has to.

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“I think the one thing about Baker that’s just always stuck out to me is he’s such a competitor,” Kevin O’Connell said. “He’s going to be at his best when it’s required. He’s going to meet the moment. Baker is such a talented guy, but he’s really strong. It takes multiple guys to get him on the ground, and when he does run, he’s going to finish forward, get first downs, and the entire building is going to light up from it.”

“He has this gamer feel to him,” linebacker Blake Cashman said. “It’s almost like backyard football.”

In some ways, the Vikings will look to repeat their containment plan from last week against Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, another guy who loves to extend plays and try to make things happen outside of structure.

“You just gotta be ready to meet that moment as well and try to do some fundamental things to limit his ability to make some of those game-changing plays,” O’Connell said.

The matchup-specific stat that matters

PFF tracks turnover-worthy plays, which are defined as “a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.” Mayfield has 5 of them in two games, which was tied for the league lead before Jordan Love surged ahead on Thursday night.

Mayfield lost three fumbles in Week 1 against the Bengals. Last week, he threw an interception. He’s been sacked seven times in two games. He’s only been pressured on about a third of his dropbacks so far, but four of his turnover-worthy plays have come when under pressure.

There’s no denying that Mayfield is a talented quarterback who can shred a defense when given time and can make magic happen when a play breaks down. At the same time, the Vikings have to feel like their uniquely aggressive scheme — led by players like Dallas Turner, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, and Jalen Redmond — might be able to force Mayfield into some sacks and a turnover or two.

Individual matchup to highlight

On paper, an easy one to put here would be Turner against Buccaneers star left tackle Tristan Wirfs, who is one of the best in the game. But we might not actually see that matchup as often as you’d think.

The beauty of Flores’ defense is in the way it creates schematic predicaments for opponents in pass protection. A lot of Turner’s pressures through two games have come from a combination of his athleticism and the scheme giving him either an unimpeded path to the quarterback or only a tight end to beat, like on the final play in Chicago. The Vikings will move him around the formation to find attack angles.

“You have to decide where you’re gonna give up something,” O’Connell said this week. “If it’s gonna be less eligibles out for the sake of protection, there could be some matchups within that that’s a problem. If it’s gonna be more eligibles out, we’re probably gonna have one more than you got.”

A different matchup worth highlighting is Buccaneers DT Calijah Kancey (94) against Vikings guards Donovan Jackson and Will Fries. Kancey, a 2023 first-round pick, leads Tampa Bay in pressures (7) and is probably their most dangerous pass-rush threat.

Injury/availability report

The Vikings have a relatively clean injury report. Aaron Jones is good to go and will lead Minnesota’s backfield. The only notable injury (outside of Jordan Mason being on IR) is that punter Brett Thorson is out and will be replaced by veteran Johnny Hekker.

For the Buccaneers, two rookie starters — OLB Rueben Bain Jr. and LB Josiah Trotter — have been ruled out. Trotter was off to a very strong start to his career, so that’s a tough loss for Tampa.

X-factor: Bredeson battle

A fun storyline for this game is that brothers Max and Ben Bredeson will be on opposing teams for the first time. Max, the Vikings’ standout rookie fullback, plays around 20 snaps per game and will be an important part of Minnesota’s efforts to run the football against a good Buccaneers defensive front. Ben, the Buccaneers’ left guard, is going to have his hands full with Redmond and Levi Drake Rodriguez and the Vikings’ interior blitzes.

Which Bredeson brother will emerge victorious?

Head-to-head history and recent trends

The Vikings are 33-24 all-time against the Buccaneers. The two teams played twice a year in the NFC Central from 1978-2001, but this will be just their ninth meeting since 2005. The Buccaneers won the last two, which were at U.S. Bank Stadium in 2023 (the season opener) and in Tampa Bay in 2020.

The Vikings are just 1-7 at Raymond James Stadium since it opened in 1998. The lone win came on a walkoff overtime fumble that was forced and returned for a touchdown by rookie linebacker Anthony Barr in 2014.

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