Alabama Crimson Tide at Florida State Seminoles Opening Odds: Cover or Not?
· Yahoo Sports
After a slow start against Kentucky, Alabama crushed the Wildcats on the road 45-17. Daniel Hill 104 rushing yards effort was a big part of the win which alleviated some of the pressure from QB Keelon Russell. For those of you who enjoy sports betting, I hope you jumped on that -10.5 spread from that game.
Next up for the Crimson Tide is a chance for redemption against Florida State who upset the Tide a season ago. This Saturday’s match-up will take place in Tuscaloosa which gives Bama a distinct advantage. FanDuel has opening odds of Alabama being a 18.5 point favorite over the Seminoles with an Over/Under of 50.5. This is another line that looks a tad low.
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FLORIDA STATEThe Seminoles began the season against New Mexico State. FSU did not exactly dominate that game. It was a ten point lead until they scored a touchdown with four minutes to go to take the home opener 34-17. A week ago, SMU had to overcome four turnovers before topping Florida State 27-24 in Tallahassee. In those two games, QB Ashton Daniels has completed only 58% of his passes with only thrown touchdowns and one interception. RB Ousmane Kromah has rushed for 115 and 116 yards.
The FSU defense has given up 47 and 155 yards of rushing which is not too bad. It is the passing defense that is the big issue. Lowly NMSU put up 272 passing yards with two scores through the air. SMU torched the ’Noles for 430 and 3 touchdowns.
Florida State did not cover either FanDuel spread and was twice below the Over/Under.
- Aug 29 vs New Mexico State: -31.5/52.5, Won 34-17, Lost/Under
- Sep 7 vs SMU: +2.5/53.5, Lost 24-27, Lost/Under
The final spread before kickoff of Alabama-East Carolina was Bama -27.5 with an Over/Under of 52.5. For the Kentucky game, it was the Crimson Tide by 10.5 and an Over/Under of 48.5. Those numbers were obliterated.
- Sep 5 vs East Carolina: -28.5/52.5, Won 48-10, Won/Over
- Sep 12 at Kentucky: -9.5/47.5, Won 45-17, Won/Over
Russell is still making some youthful mistakes but is getting better. He had the offense clicking in the second half. This Tide team will put up some points this season. The defense too is working through a few issues but they are proving to be among the best in the nation. The Georgia game is still several weeks away. That will be the true test. For now, they have Florida State who is a few degrees down from what Kentucky is but better than ECU. Nothing is for sure in college football, but there is a good chance Alabama gets a big win on Saturday.
MATHOne thing to consider is that FSU has had a week off to rest and scout the Crimson Tide. For Alabama, they will most likely be getting right guard Michael Carroll back which will be a boon for the offense.
With an over/under of 50.5 and 18.5 point spread by FanDuel, the final score could look something like Bama 35-16 or 34-16.
I like Alabama over the -18.5. The point total seems a little low. I would go over the Over/Under. Thoughts?