Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction, odds, pick for Week 2 rivalry game

September 11, 2026 · Yahoo Sports

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It is the 73rd battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy as Iowa State faces Iowa. Iowa State has won the last two meetings between the two teams. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Iowa State-Iowa prediction and pick.

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Iowa comes in at 1-0 and ranked in the Top 25. Iowa’s offense was dominant in the first game of the year, a rarity for the Hawkeyes. They racked up 26 first downs, while piling up 507 yards of offense. Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski were both solid at quarterback. Brown threw for 129 yards and a touchdown, while Hecklinski threw for 76 yards and a score, but had a pick. Still, the star of the show was Kamari Moulton. He ran the ball just 11 times, but for 183 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, the defense held Northern Illinois to just 120 yards and only seven on the ground, as Iowa won the game 40-0.

Iowa State is also 1-0 on the year, after a win over Southeast Missouri State. The offense was not perfect, with just 303 yards of offense and four of ten on first down. Still, there were some big plays. Dominic Overby hauled in just two passes. One was for 45 yards while the other was for 40. Meanwhile, Omari Hayes had a 34 yards receptions and a 20-yard one. The defense was solid overall. They held SEMO to just 209 yards while forcing three turnovers in the 38-19 victory.

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Iowa leads the all-time series 46-25, with one vacated win for Iowa from 2023. Still, Iowa State has controlled the series lately. They have won three of the last four and have not lost in Iowa City since 2018.

Odds provided by DraftKings

Iowa State vs. Iowa Odds

Iowa State: +14 (-112)

Iowa: -14 (-108)

Over: 40.5 (-112)

Under: 40.5 (-108)

Iowa State vs. Iowa Key Injuries

Iowa State- RB Troy Blaylock (Questionable), LT Michael Fasusi (Doubtful), C Jake Maikkula (Probable), OL Ryan Fodje (Probable), DE Danny Okoye (Probably)

Iowa- OL Ace Hamilton (Out), LT Andrew Babalola (Questionable), TE Hogan Hansen (Questionable), Edge Carter Meadows (Questionable), DE John Henry Daley (Probable), S Rod Moore (Probable)

Iowa State vs. Iowa Betting Trends

– The under has been dominant in this series. It has hit in six of the last seven games, and eight of the last ten.

– In six of the last eight games, the underdog has covered the spread.

– Four of the last five Cy-Hawk trophy games have been decided by seven or fewer points.

– The road teams have lost just four times since 2010.

Keys to Iowa State vs. Iowa matchup

For Iowa State, it starts with managing mistakes. Jaylen Raynor was a three-year starter at Arkansas State before transferring this year to Iowa State. In those three years, he threw 52 touchdowns to 29 interceptions. Last week, he was just eight of 16 passes. While it was for 184 yards, that was mainly because of four massive passing plays. Meanwhile, he threw multiple balls that could have been intercepted. He often went for boom-or-bust plays in the passing game, something Iowa will punish him for. Raynor also has to be willing to run and not try to force the ball. He ran for 350 yards or more in each season at Arkansas State, but ran for just 32 yards last week and ran instead of taking open checkdowns.

On defense, Iowa State has to stack the box. While Iowa does not have their quarterback situation figured out, this is always a run-first team. Kamari Moulton is a big play waiting to happen in the backfield. He averages over 5.5 yards per carry in his career, and ran the ball just 11 times for 183 yards last week. He is also not the only stud running back. Braeden Jackson ran just three times against Northern Illinois for 30 yards. Still, that is ten yards per carry, or a first down every time he touched the ball. Meanwhile, the team averaged 7.6 yards per carry. If Iowa State can cut that down, they can keep it close and potentially win.

For Iowa, they need to figure out their quarterback situation and not let it become an issue. Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski are both expected to play in this game, and split reps similar to how they did in Week 1. The issue lies in whether Kirk Ferentz decides he wants to see more from a quarterback and the temptation to get away from the ground game. With the running at the level it is for Iowa, the quarterback needs to be a game manager. Hecklinski put the ball in harm’s way too many times last week, and if Ferentz puts him in too often, and he pushes in an effort to win the job, turnovers could be the undoing of Iowa.

On defense, Iowa needs to make Iowa State one-dimensional. Last year, the defense allowed just seven yards on 31 carries. That is just 0.2 yards per carry. If they can do that, then the Cyclones will be in long third-down situations. That will lead to passing downs where the pass rush can pressure Raynor and force mistakes. If Iowa wins the turnover battle, they will dominate the game.

Iowa State vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

Home field advantage has not been a major factor in this series. Since 2010, the home team has won just four times. This game is going to come down to the Iowa defense. If they can perform like they did last week, the Cyclones will have no answer. A 14-point spread is difficult to cover in a rivalry game, but this Iowa State team is loaded with transfers that may not feel the same pride in beating Iowa as some players who have been there for some time. Meanwhile, Iowa is always out for dominance in this game. While historically these games have been close, it won’t be in this one.

Final Iowa State vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick: Iowa -14 (-108) and Under 40.5 (-108)

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