Zelensky: U.S. exploring Russia-Ukraine winter de-escalation steps
· Axios
The U.S. is exploring whether Ukraine and Russia could take steps to de-escalate the war during the winter while restarting negotiations toward a broader peace agreement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios in an interview Monday.
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Why it matters: The Ukrainian president believes the weeks before winter offer a window for diplomacy. While Zelensky said he's convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin is counting on another brutal winter to weaken Ukraine, he added that Putin "needs Trump" and doesn't want to antagonize the U.S. president ahead of the midterm elections.
- "My feeling [is] that Putin needs Trump," Zelensky said. "He doesn't want ... to upset him."
- Zelensky said that even if Putin doesn't want to de-escalate, he could be pressured by the Trump administration to do so.
- When asked whether Putin might want to give Trump a diplomatic win before the U.S. elections, Zelensky replied: "Yeah."
Driving the news: Zelensky met in Kyiv on Sunday with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. It was their first visit to Ukraine since Trump started his second term.
- Kushner and Witkoff traveled to Kyiv after holding a three-hour meeting with Putin at the Kremlin on Saturday.
- Zelensky said the message he received from the U.S. envoys was that "the Russians are ready to negotiate."
- He remains skeptical, however, because Russia's actions on the battlefield and its recent escalation of attacks don't demonstrate a willingness to compromise.
- But Zelensky said his understanding after the U.S. envoys' trip is that Putin is "ready to discuss" ideas for moving negotiations forward.
Behind the scenes: Zelensky said the U.S. envoys came to Moscow and Kyiv primarily to "unblock" the diplomatic process, but also brought some new ideas.
- He declined to disclose all the details but said some of the discussions involved potential de-escalation steps from Russia and Ukraine ahead of and during the winter.
- "There are ideas around energy [facilities] and around grain [shipments], around electricity [facilities] and around oil and gas [exports]. We have different interests, Russia and we," Zelensky said.
- Asked whether the emerging U.S. approach involves both restarting negotiations and trying to reach understandings that would allow Ukraine and Russia to get through the winter without a major escalation, Zelensky said that interpretation was "very close to the reality of these conversations."
- He described the first objective as resuming negotiations and the second as trying to make the coming winter different from previous ones, when Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure heightened the war.
- The goal, he said, would be to find steps before or during the winter "which can bring [the] sides closer to the peace."
Yes, but: U.S. officials say they don't know if it will be possible to address the interests of both Russia and Ukraine ahead of winter. Countless previous attempts to reach ceasefires or pause strikes on energy facilities have failed.
What to watch: Zelensky said the U.S. team is expected to brief Trump and then continue consultations with Ukrainian and European officials.
State of play: Zelensky said the U.S. also supports a separate "winter package" for Ukraine that would include air defense and energy assistance.
- "It's not only about missiles," Zelensky said. "It's also about LNG [liquefied natural gas] ... and it's also about steps of de-escalation."
The big picture: Zelensky believes Putin is counting on the winter to inflict enough damage on Ukraine to force Kyiv into further concessions.
- "Russia really thinks that this winter can help them to break us," Zelensky said.
- He said Moscow hopes a major winter offensive and attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will deliver a "strong kick" after which Ukraine will become "more compromising."
- Zelensky stressed that Ukraine has already made all the compromises it can and that any diplomatic process would also need security guarantees and an economic support package.
- Zelensky also pointed out that Russia faces its own risks heading into the winter months. Ukraine, he said, can also hit Russia economically. "When they attacked our electricity, we blocked their possibility to sell oil and gas," he said. He also warned that disruptions to agricultural exports could drive up global food prices and cause food insecurity.
What's next: Zelensky said Ukraine wants to use September and October to restart a diplomatic process and suggested the UN General Assembly in New York later this month as a possible venue for further U.S.-Ukraine talks.
- He said there is also the possibility of another trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia negotiating session, though no decision has been made.
- "We have this September, October to find any way to speak," Zelensky said. "Without dialogue … we will not have [a] result."
- "I think that President Trump can find a way to [a] real beginning of the process of negotiating before [the] cold winter," he added.
Reality check: Zelensky said Ukraine would need to remain militarily strong throughout any diplomatic process and argued that Kyiv is currently in a better position on the battlefield than it was previously despite shortages in its air defense and continued Russian drone and missile attacks.
- He also called for additional U.S. sanctions on Russia, describing them as a key source of leverage in any negotiations.
- "Putin needs money," Zelensky said. "Putin wants money to continue the war."