Iowa Hawkeyes Football: Northern Illinois Game Preview
· Yahoo Sports
This Saturday, the Iowa Hawkeyes open their football season against the Northern Illinois Huskies. Last year, the Huskies went 3-9 which led to their coach voluntarily resigning. Their current coach, Rob Harley, is officially an interim coach. And they have exactly four returning starters, total, all on offense.
Northern Illinois is not good. On its power rankings, CBS has NIU ranked No. 127 of 138 teams. So everything I’m about to say presupposes that Iowa easily wipes the floor with Northern Illinois. True, many Iowa teams of the past have struggled with early-season cupcakes. But I am stupidly optimistic about this offense under Tim Lester. I’m not saying they are or will be great when it really matters. But they are and will be good enough to take care of highly inferior opponents which is exactly what I think will happen this Saturday.
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Three Questions
Do Ferentz and Lester Let the Offense Air it Out?
The big question on most Iowa fans’ minds concerns the quarterback situation. As they say, two quarterbacks is the same as no quarterbacks. That issue doesn’t concern me. Yet. It will if they still don’t name an official No. 1 for the Iowa State game.
For now, my concern is that Ferentz and offensive coordinator Tim Lester will shut the offense down after Iowa gets a strong lead, or worse, trot out a vanilla offense from the get-go. It is also the strategy that Ferentz has usually employed against every early-season patsy he’s ever played, once he gets a solid lead.
Last year, Iowa took a 17-0 lead midway against Albany and threw three passes in the second half. In 2024, Iowa didn’t have the game in hand vs Illinois State until after the third quarter at which point it was 19-0. From that point forward there were four passes.
This is not a bad strategy. It cements a win, and you don’t want to reveal too much of your playbook to opposing DCs too early in the season. But right now, there is a quarterback competition and priority No. 1 does not concern revealing the playbook but choosing a starting quarterback. Handing the ball off over and over again will only reveal so much.
I’d like to see the two starting quarterbacks play for at least three full quarters and I’d like to see all quarterbacks combine for at least 40 passing attempts. I don’t think the latter is going to happen, but I’d like to see it.
By the way, the last time an Iowa quarterback had at least 40 passing attempts in one game? 2020 when Spencer Petras had 50 passing attempts in a 21-20 loss to Northwestern. That was one of former OC Brian Ferentz’s biggest head scratchers. The last time Iowa attempted 40 passes and won was 2017 when Nate Stanley attempted 41 passes and beat Iowa State in OT.
Under Phil Parker, Iowa has always had good defenses. Without fail. The Hawkeyes’ scoring defense has been ranked in the top 20 every year since 2016. Top 10 five of those years. It is safe to say this year will also be a top 20 defense. But there are good defenses–last year, for example–and there are great defenses–2022 and 2023. What is the difference? Turnovers. The good defenses keep the opponent from scoring. The great defenses create scoring opportunities for themselves and the offense.
Last year’s defense was good. Very good. No. 8 in the country in scoring defense. But it also ranked No. 104 nationally in turnovers forced.
And arguably the biggest element of creating turnovers? Pressure on the quarterback. Last year’s defense created 26 sacks which was tied for 68th in the country. Compare that to, say, 2022: 35 sacks for 24th in the country. 2023: 33 sacks tied for 36th in the country.
Last year’s defensive ends were solid, but they weren’t spectacular. They didn’t make the opposing quarterback’s life miserable. And either way, they all graduated. Iowa has exactly one sack returning from last year’s 26, and that sack was by defensive back Zach Lutmer.
In order for this defense to be great, not good, it will need to consistently pressure the quarterback, and that will start with the defensive ends; senior Kenneth Merrieweather, sophomore Iose Espensa, junior transfer Kahmari Brown and junior Drew Campbell are at the top of the depth chart.
They don’t need to end this game with five registered sacks. But they do need to make sure the quarterback never gets comfortable in the pocket. Because they can get away with a comfortable quarterback against NIU. But Michigan, Ohio State and Washington will play pitch and catch all day if they’re allowed to.
Can the Kicker Make the Makeables?
Iowa could probably avoid kicking field goals all game, play every series on the Huskies’ side of the field as a four-down series and only trot out the kicker for extra points. But the place kicker position is almost as unsettled as the quarterback. I stress “almost”; they did name a starter in sophomore Caden Buhr. But unlike quarterback, where Ferentz has a history of picking his guy and sticking with him through thick and thin, he’ll bench his kicker.
As Hawkeye fans know, Iowa under Kirk Ferentz plays a lot of close games. There were four games decided by three-points-or-fewer in 2025 in which Iowa went 2-2. In 2024, there were also four three-points-or-fewer games (1-3). 2023: four (3-1). I could go on but you get the idea. The national average for decisions of three-points-or-fewer between 2005-2025 is approximately two per program per year. The obvious takeaway is that place kicker is more important to Iowa than many other teams.
I am far more worried about place kicker than I am about quarterback. That seems counterintuitive, but consider 2023. Iowa won 10 games with deplorable quarterback play, and no matter who the quarterback is this year, I expect him to be far better than 2023. However, the Hawkeyes under Ferentz have never proven they can have a double-digit win season with sub-par, let alone deplorable, place kicker play.
There will be games this year that come down to one field goal. Count on it. And what kind of experience does Buhr have coming into the season? He had one kickoff for a touchback last year against UMass. Meanwhile, the backup, Eli Ozick, is a senior transfer from North Dakota who has plenty of experience…at North Dakota. And with all his experience he couldn’t beat out Buhr for the starting role.
So my hope is that Ferentz trots his kicker out a few times against NIU even on fourth-and-one from the 16-yard line. Iowa needs to have confidence in its kicker going into the Big Ten season. This needs to be settled as much as quarterback does.
Two Things to Watch
Running Back Carry Distribution
Last year’s starting running back Kamari Moulton had 170 carries for 878 yards and five touchdowns. He also was an able receiver with 16 catches for 97 yards. Again, solid. I can think of a number of years when I would have been happy to have him starting in the Iowa backfield. But last year, with that Joe Moore-award-winning offensive line and an OC who didn’t have to depend on his daddy for a job, his longest run was 34 yards, and he didn’t register a single 100-yard game.
Given that Iowa returns most of its production at RB, it was something of a surprise that it reached into the transfer portal to get LJ Phillips. Phillips transferred from South Dakota where, last year, he ran for 1920 yards on 295 carries. Word around the Internet is Phillips brings the explosive quality that Moulton doesn’t have, and the Iowa coaches have praised him every chance they’ve gotten.
Rounding the backfield out are junior Xavier Williams and sophomore Nathan McNeil both of whom gained worthwhile carries last year. In short, Iowa is loaded in the backfield.
I’ve already said I’d like to see Iowa throw the ball 40 times this game. But the running backs are going to touch the ball, and I’m curious what the carry distribution will be. Moulton is the starter, but will he share even splits with Phillips? And if so, who will shine. Will Williams and McNeil play meaningful snaps or garbage-time snaps? Personally, I’m hoping for an even split between Moulton and Phillips.
Formations, Particularly 12 and 13 VS 11
Speaking of loaded, Iowa’s tight ends. Sophomore DJ Vonnahme came on during the second half of last season and exploded in the bowl game. Meanwhile, fifth-year senior Addison Ostrenga was supposed to be the featured tight end last year, but his season was cut short in the second game of the year. He will be back. And then sophomore Thomas Meyer is also pressing for playing time and has earned rave reviews from Vonnahme. Iowa could play 3-tight-end sets and feast on opposing linebackers.
But, for the first time in years, Iowa actually has a decent wide receiver room. Most of it is unproven, and where it concerns Iowa wide receivers, I won’t believe it until I see it. Still, Reece Vander Zee is a proven commodity, and he is healthy for the first time in a while. And transfers Tony Diaz and Evan James have been making (Internet) waves.
It would be a big improvement if Iowa can field three solid receivers, but there also appears to be some depth in KJ Parker, Jarriet Buie and Dayton Howard.
Again, I’ll believe it when I see it, but I am interested in seeing what formations Tim Lester uses. Does he go tight end heavy or does he opt for more receivers? Or a healthy dose of both? It’s hard to believe that Iowa has talent at all of its skill positions, but it is a possibility.
One Wild Prediction
Iowa has not had a wide receiver post 100 yards receiving in a game since Jacob Gill had 138 yards vs UCLA in 2024. It has not had a running back top 100 yards since Kaleb Johnson, also 2024. So basically, the only player that topped the century mark last year—rushing or receiving—was tight end DJ Vonnahme and he didn’t do it until the bowl game.
My hot take is that someone—a running back or wide receiver—will top the century mark vs Northern Illinois.
Go Hawks!