Fantasy Football: Colston Loveland or Tyler Warren? You'll have to figure out these 3 TE ADP battles in your drafts

· Yahoo Sports

Tight end is always one of the more interesting positions to attack in fantasy drafts because once you get past the very top of the board, you are usually making a specific bet. Are you betting on volume? Are you betting on talent? Are you betting on the quarterback and the offense around the player?

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These three Yahoo draft battles all force you to answer that question a little differently.

This is a tough one because I really like both of these young tight ends. Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren both flashed as rookies, both have legitimate top-five tight end upside and both are being drafted like fantasy managers expect another step forward from them in Year 2.

Loveland's full-season numbers do not completely tell the story. He finished with a 16.4% target share and 65% route participation, but from Week 9 through Week 18 he saw 63 targets in 10 games, caught 47 passes for 597 yards and scored six touchdowns. That second-half stretch is much closer to the player fantasy managers are betting on when they take him as Yahoo's TE3 at 38th overall.

The appeal with Loveland is not just the player — it is the environment around him. Caleb Williams is entering another year in Ben Johnson's system and I think Chicago has a chance to be one of the better offenses in football. Loveland also played with a 9.1-yard aDOT as a rookie, giving him more downfield upside than the typical tight end who lives underneath.

There is competition though. Rome Odunze is going to command targets. Luther Burden III is going to get his opportunities when healthy and Cole Kmet is still there. Loveland may have to be extremely efficient if the target tree stays crowded.

Warren's case is almost the opposite. He ran 500 routes as a rookie, participated on 87% of Indianapolis' routes and commanded a 21.2% target share. He saw 112 targets and I have him projected for around 120 this season. The volume could be massive.

Indianapolis also has room for Warren to become the focal point of this passing attack. Michael Pittman Jr. is gone, Alec Pierce has been dealing with an injury and Josh Downs is a good player, but I do not view him as the type of receiver who automatically owns this offense. The Colts also added Keenan Allen late in camp, which adds another mouth to feed.

The difference for me comes down to what I think those targets are worth. Warren had a 5.4-yard aDOT last season compared to Loveland at 9.1 and I trust Caleb Williams more than Daniel Jones to create high-value opportunities when things break down.

Warren probably has the cleaner volume projection. I can easily see him finishing with more targets and more catches. But if I am choosing between two comparable young talents this early, I am going to bet on the offense I believe has the better chance to take off.

The pick: Colston Loveland.

This matchup got a little more complicated over the past week because now both players come with legitimate injury questions. Tucker Kraft is coming back from an ACL tear and has only recently returned to 11-on-11 work. Sam LaPorta is coming back from back surgery and is now dealing with a hip issue that has put his Week 1 status into question.

That makes this a little more interesting because I am not looking at one healthy player against one injured player. I am trying to separate the actual talent profiles and roles.

Kraft was on his way to a massive season before tearing his ACL. In eight games he caught 32 passes for 489 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 12.7 half-PPR points per game. He posted 2.56 yards per route run, earned targets on 23% of his routes and accounted for 33.3% of Green Bay's red-zone targets.

The touchdown pace was hot. Six scores on 32 receptions is not something I would project over a full season. But the efficiency and target earning were real and that is what makes Kraft interesting.

Green Bay's offense is also going to look different. Romeo Doubs is gone. Dontayvion Wicks is gone. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden are still there, but if Kraft is fully healthy I can see him becoming one of Jordan Love's primary options. I have him personally projected for around 100 targets, close to 800 yards and seven touchdowns.

LaPorta's argument is just as easy to understand. Detroit should once again field one of the best offenses in the league. Jared Goff is a walking 4,000-yard passer and this team is going to score points.

The problem is that Detroit has a lot of players who need the football.

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Jahmyr Gibbs is being drafted as the No. 1 overall player in fantasy. Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to command heavy volume and Jameson Williams can flip a game on one play. LaPorta was still on the field a ton last season, running a route on 83% of Detroit's dropbacks, but his 20.1% targets per route trailed Kraft and his red-zone target share was well behind Kraft's.

Now we add the hip issue on top of that.

Yahoo has Kraft going 58th overall and LaPorta at 61, so this is basically a same-cost decision. I like LaPorta and I think there is a chance he ends up being undervalued if the injury pushes him too far down draft boards. But if I am choosing between the two right now, I see a clearer path for one of them to become one of the two most important pieces of his passing offense.

The pick: Tucker Kraft.

This might be the most difficult battle of the three, because I can make a real case for both players.

Kyle Pitts Sr. was actually good last season. He saw 118 targets, caught 88 passes for 928 yards and ran a route on more than 90% of Atlanta's dropbacks. He earned a 22.7% target share and posted 1.80 yards per route run. Whatever frustration fantasy managers still have with Pitts, the usage was there.

The coaching change makes this even more interesting. Kevin Stefanski comes to Atlanta after spending last season with Harold Fannin Jr. in Cleveland. Stefanski had a versatile tight end he could move around the formation and manufacture touches for in Fannin. Now he has Pitts, who can do a lot of those same things.

The early usage has been encouraging too. In Atlanta's preseason stint with the starters, Pitts was targeted on all four legitimate Tua Tagovailoa attempts and caught three passes for 22 yards. Four throws are not enough to tell us what the offense will look like, but the intent matters.

Tua wants the football out quickly. He is not going to consistently sit in the pocket waiting for routes to develop downfield, and that may actually help Pitts. If Stefanski can give him easy throws underneath, play-action looks and opportunities over the middle, there is a path to another strong season.

Then there is Fannin.

I think he is one of the most underrated tight ends in fantasy football. He commanded a 21.6% target share as a rookie, saw 107 targets and earned a target on 25.5% of his routes. That target-per-route number is the stat that keeps pulling me back in.

His role also continued to grow as the year went on and David Njoku is gone now. Cleveland added KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston at receiver, so this is not an empty target tree, but Fannin has already shown he can operate from multiple spots and create after the catch.

The obvious question for both is quarterback play. Cleveland is dealing with Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders while Atlanta is trying to figure out what it has with Tua and Michael Penix Jr. I do not think either situation is perfect.

I have Pitts and Fannin projected almost dead even, right around 12 points per game. Yahoo has them almost dead even too, with Fannin going 71st overall and Pitts at 73.

So this one is not really about draft price. It is about which player I believe in more.

Pitts may have the better offensive environment and I understand why people will bet on Stefanski unlocking him. Fannin already showed me that he can command targets at a very high rate as a rookie and now he enters Year 2 with an even clearer role.

At basically the same cost, I am betting on the player who’s not competing with the best running back in football and a top-10 receiver on the outside.

The pick: Harold Fannin Jr.

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