India Requires Structural Transformation To Meet $2 Trillion Export Target By FY31

New Delhi: India will need to more than double its current export trajectory to achieve its ambitious target of $2 trillion in total exports by FY31, requiring a structural transformation of the country's manufacturing and trade ecosystem, Commerce Ministry Additional Secretary Yashvir Singh said on Thursday.

Addressing the CII Manufacturing Conclave here, Singh said India's total exports had reached an all-time high of $863 billion in FY26, compared with $468 billion in 2014-15. However, he stressed that achieving the $2 trillion target would require more than incremental improvements.

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“The ambition of $2 trillion of total exports by 2030 demands that we more than double our current trajectory. That acceleration will not come from incremental improvements. It requires structural transformation,” Singh said.

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He said the ongoing global debate around the China-plus-one strategy should not be limited to replacing one supply-chain dependency with another. Instead, India should position itself as a trusted and resilient manufacturing partner capable of offering transparent and reliable supply networks.

“Let us not be China plus one. Let us be India, the trusted partner, the resilient manufacturer and the next great engine of global growth,” he said.

Singh's remarks come amid growing strains in the global trading system, with trade increasingly being used as an instrument of geopolitical policy. He said the multilateral trade order that supported decades of shared prosperity was undergoing significant structural realignment.

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Referring to developments at the World Trade Organisation, he pointed to differences at the WTO's 14th Ministerial Conference and the continued paralysis of its appellate body as signs of the challenges facing the multilateral trading system.

He also said the most-favoured-nation principle, a key pillar of global trade, was increasingly being tested by reciprocal tariffs and the unilateral expansion of security exceptions.

“Export restrictions on critical minerals are being weaponised. Technology choke points are being deliberately engineered. Trade is no longer just an economic instrument. It has become a tool of geographic statecraft,” Singh said.

According to Singh, the increasing concentration of manufacturing and critical supply chains has emerged as a major economic security concern. China's share of global manufacturing value added increased from around 3 per cent in 1990 to nearly 28 per cent in 2024, while the country has also established a dominant position in the processing and refining of several critical minerals, including rare earths, graphite and magnesium.

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