India's Smartphone Shipments Set To Fall Over 15% In H2 2026 As Memory Cost Surge Reshapes The Market
· Free Press Journal
India's smartphone market is headed for a difficult second half of 2026, as a sharp rise in memory chip prices pushes up handset costs and makes buyers more cautious. A report released by IDC projected shipments to decline by more than 15 percent in the second half of the year, pulling full-year volumes down to roughly 128-130 million units from 152 million units in 2025.
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Two research firms, one trend
The findings align with an earlier projection from Counterpoint, which estimated a 13 percent decline in India's smartphone market for 2026 after shipments fell 10 percent in the June quarter, the steepest June-quarter drop in six years. Counterpoint noted that memory prices had risen nearly fourfold since September 2025, pushing average smartphone prices up by around 15 percent by the end of the second quarter, with affordability emerging as the market's biggest challenge for the remainder of the year.
IDC's own second-quarter numbers reflect this pressure. Shipments fell 11.1 percent year-on-year to 33.2 million units, taking first-half volumes down 7.9 percent to 64.2 million units, the weakest first-half performance in five years. Even so, overall market value rose 3.6 percent during the same period, as higher prices partly offset the drop in volumes.
Entry-level segment bears the brunt
The steepest impact has fallen on Chinese smartphone brands, which have traditionally depended on lower-priced devices to drive volumes. iQOO's shipments dropped 61 percent in the June quarter, while Realme fell 14.2 percent, vivo 13.9 percent, Poco 12.3 percent, Xiaomi 10 percent, Oppo 8.5 percent and OnePlus 2.5 percent. IDC said brands built around low-end volumes were hit hardest, as rising memory costs made it difficult to hold both affordability and margins.
The sub-100-dollar segment has been the worst affected, with shipments in this price band falling 74.3 percent in the June quarter and its overall market share shrinking to 4.5 percent from 15.6 percent. IDC said sustaining profitability at this price point has become increasingly difficult, resulting in fewer launches and weaker channel support.
Buyers who remain are trading up
Despite the overall slowdown, consumers who continue to purchase appear to be moving toward higher price bands. The 400-600 dollar segment grew 60.3 percent year-on-year, with its market share rising to 8.6 percent from 4.8 percent. The 100-200 dollar mass-budget segment stayed the largest category at 46.8 percent of shipments and remained largely stable, while the 200-400 dollar segment declined 8.1 percent. The 600-800 dollar segment held flat and the above-800-dollar segment slipped 5 percent.
This shift toward premium devices has helped Samsung and Apple hold their ground. Samsung's shipments rose 0.4 percent, lifting its market share to 16.4 percent from 14.5 percent, while Apple's shipments grew 0.7 percent, taking its share to 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent. Apple also led the market by value with a 27 percent share, up 22.2 percent year-on-year, even as supply shortages for the iPhone 15, 16 and 17 constrained its shipments. The iPhone 17 remained the top-shipped device in both the first and second quarters, and IDC expects Apple's full-year shipments to decline by mid-single digits as older models become costlier and festive discounts stay limited.
Discounts dry up ahead of the festive season
Average selling prices climbed 14.4 percent year-on-year to a record 315 dollars in the June quarter, as brands and retailers pulled back on discounts to protect margins. Online shipments fell 19.8 percent, reducing the channel's share to 41.9 percent from 46.4 percent, while offline shipments declined a more modest 3.6 percent, taking their share to 58.1 percent.
Brands are also reviving 4G models to keep entry-level pricing viable, with the share of 4G smartphones rising to 11.1 percent as affordable 5G devices grew costlier. IDC described this shift as a temporary, supply-driven measure, with prices likely to rise further once existing 4G inventory is exhausted.