June fiscal surplus soars 64.4%
· The South African
South Africa’s June 2026 fiscal surplus soared by 64.4% year-on-year to R80.1 billion. This followed June surpluses of R48.7 billion, R38.6 billion and R36.8 billion in 2025, 2024 and 2023 respectively.
The graph is based on data provided by the National Treasury.The National Treasury data show that revenue jumped by 13.6% year-on-year in June. This followed a 7.0% rise in May and a 12.5% increase in April. The fiscal year-to-date increase is 11.3% year-on-year.
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Surprisingly, there was a R1.9 billion surplus in the first three months of the fiscal year. In the same period in fiscal 2025/26 there was a R26 billion deficit.
Ordinarily, commodity prices do not move in large jumps or drops. However, the second US Presidency of Donald Trump is anything but ordinary. Due to his erratic policy making, commodity prices have been extremely volatile.
This is reflected in the gold price, as gold is seen as a safe haven. The gold price reached a record $5 608.40 per ounce on 29 January 2026. It then eased to $4 053.49 per ounce on 31 July 2026.
February Budget assumptions
In the February 2026 Budget, the Treasury forecast a 6.0% increase in tax revenue for the 2026/27 fiscal year. The June fiscal surplus seems to indicate that this forecast is too conservative.
As the increase in the first three months of the fiscal year was almost double that, this may indicate that the economy is performing better than expected. The Treasury will update its forecast in the October 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement.
The Treasury assumption for the Brent oil price was a decline to an average of $61.60 per barrel in 2026 from an average of $68.30 in 2025. The price on Budget Day 25 February was $68.30 per barrel. It then soared to $113.14 per barrel on 19 March. This followed the attacks on Iran on 28 February.