Chalk One Up for Ukraine
· Time
It is often hard to know who is winning the war in Ukraine. The front lines scarcely budge. The air war brings regular Russian missile strikes—the most recent ones have hit Kyiv—and Ukrainian attacks that have battered Russian oil refineries and reached as far as Siberia. Ukrainian officials say the tide is turning their way; the Kremlin insists it will win a war of attrition.
In one significant way, Ukraine has already won. Some of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful nations—the United States included—are now turning to Ukraine for military assistance. Ukraine has built a defense sector at an astonishing speed and emerged as a global player in military innovation. “Ukraine needs NATO, but NATO needs Ukraine as much as the other way around,” remarked President Alexander Stubb of Finland, which joined NATO in 2023.
Visit moryak.biz for more information.
Beyond its implications for the war, this is a stunning achievement that will serve Ukraine well long after the guns fall silent. In President Donald Trump’s parlance, Ukraine now has a powerful “card” to play, a card it dealt itself.
From garage tech to global powerhouse
When Russia invaded Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky pleaded for foreign military aid from the West and exhorted his countrymen to build makeshift weapons for the resistance. For a time, Kyiv was grateful for pledges of American support, Bayraktar drones from Turkey, and whatever cheap weapons emerged from Ukrainian garages and warehouses.
Four and a half years later, American aid is drying up, Ukraine has replaced Bayraktar drones with more effective weapons of its own, and the country’s weapon designers have moved well beyond their low-tech garages. Ukraine’s defense technology sector is now a $7 billion industry, with many global customers and a projected annual production capacity estimated at $55 billion.
A short list of made-in-Ukraine successes includes the FP-5 Flamingo, a cruise missile with a range of more than 1,800 miles; tens of thousands of robots designed for frontline logistics and combat operations, which are minimizing risk for soldiers and are increasingly used for holding ground, firing on the enemy, and even taking prisoners; drones launched from unmanned boats to intercept and destroy Russian Shahed drones; and the “Lima” electronic warfare system, which spoofs satellite navigation signals, sending incoming missiles astray.
What began as a frantic request for outside help and garage-style innovation has evolved into a manufacturing juggernaut, large enough to support the resistance and to sell to other nations. “I’ve been arguing for many years that Ukraine would eventually become a net exporter of security,” Michael McFaul, a former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, remarked in April. “That day is coming faster than I imagined.”
How the Iran war has helped Ukraine
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran hurt Ukraine by shifting global attention away from Russia’s aggression, but that war has also been a boon for Kyiv. Gulf states, and even some American military bases in the region, turned out to be poorly prepared to fight Iranian drone and missile attacks. Ukraine had built the technology that could help.
Ukraine’s edge involves what some have called the “Ford-versus-Ferrari” problem in air defense. The U.S. and its allies in the Gulf have relied on the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot missile defense systems, which can knock almost any incoming weapon out of the sky. But those systems were designed to counter heavy missiles, and they are expensive. Each Patriot missile costs roughly $5 million. Using these against $50,000 Iranian drones is, as many have noted, akin to racing a Ferrari against a Ford. Rep. Ted Lieu, a Democrat from California, compared it to “throwing Ferraris at frisbees.”
Enter Ukraine, with its battle-tested counter-drone systems, which have beaten back barrages of Russian and Iranian drones at a fraction of the cost of THAAD systems and Patriots. To extend the metaphor, these are “Fords.” And they work. Zelensky has made this case to the rest of the world with great effect. In the past few months, he has signed defense export agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, wealthy nations that typically turn to the U.S. for military hardware.
Washington has gone from dismissing Zelensky to seeking deals of its own with Ukraine. After an Iranian drone attack killed six American soldiers in Kuwait in March, the Trump Administration turned to Ukraine for help. At Washington’s request, Ukraine set up its Sky Map air defense system at Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base, home to more than 2,000 Americans. Two months later, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said he was pushing American firms to develop low-cost air defense interceptors within a year, and encouraged them to learn from the wars in Ukraine and Iran.
At a White House meeting last August, according to Axios, Zelensky presented a plan to exchange Ukrainian counter-drone technology for American aid. His PowerPoint included a scenario that would turn out to be prescient: Iranian drone attacks on the Gulf states and American military bases in the region. The White House rejected the offer. Even in March, Trump was dismissive, saying: “We don’t need their help in drone defense.”
Though Ukraine still cannot envision a path into NATO, it is now selling its weapons and expertise to NATO countries and advising the alliance on military matters. During NATO exercises on Sweden’s Gotland island in May, Ukrainian drone teams overwhelmed Swedish forces, and warned the alliance that it was unprepared for modern drone warfare.
Ukraine has opened ten weapons export centers across Europe. On July 15, the European Union and Ukraine signed a drone-production partnership. Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland announced a deal under which Ukraine would help his country build a “modern drone Armada.” Ukraine and Germany have signed an agreement focusing on drone production and battlefield technology integration. And Kyiv has signed drone deals with Norway, Denmark, and the Baltic nations. Even Japan is getting in on the Ukrainian boom: its Terra Drone company has partnered with a Ukrainian developer to scale up interceptor drone systems.
A powerful card
None of this guarantees Ukraine a victory over Russia, or even success at the negotiating table. What it does do is boost the odds that, when the guns finally fall silent, Ukraine will have a viable future and a powerful post-war “card” to play.
Were the war to end tomorrow, Ukraine would have lost territory but gained military partnerships and significant investments, along with a new engine for its security and economic future. Russia, meanwhile, would struggle to reassemble an economy that has been badly battered, one that relies almost solely on the fickle oil market and the war economy itself.
All of which is to say: chalk one up for Ukraine. These aren’t just wins for Kyiv’s coffers, or for its ability to wreak fresh havoc on Russian targets. They are also a valuable asset that isn’t going anywhere, no matter what happens on the battlefield. For a country that will need every possible resource to rebuild, that is not just a card. It is an ace.