World Cup semifinal rankings: Why France, Spain, England, and Argentina will (and won't) win 2026 FIFA title
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World Cup semifinal rankings: Why France, Spain, England, and Argentina will (and won't) win 2026 FIFA title originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
48 teams entered the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and only four remain as the tournament has been whittled down to the semifinals.
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After ranking the 32 knockout-stage participants, and subsequently doing so for the quarterfinals, just four soccer powerhouses remain in contention for the coveted global title.
Even those highly rated sides have been challenged to the brink so far. England needed extra-time to dispatch with Erling Haaland and impressive Norway, while Spain got an 88th-minute winner to beat Belgium and France got two second-half goals to down Morocco.
The Sporting News has ranked the remaining four teams challenging for the 2026 title and assigns each one with a superlative, considering talent in the squad, performances so far, and their chances of lifting the trophy by the end of the competition.
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4. Argentina
Superlative: Legacy award
- FIFA Rank: #1
- Group stage:
- W 3-0 vs. Algeria
- W 2-0 vs. Austria
- W, 3-1 vs. Jordan
- Round of 32: W 3-2 vs. Cape Verde
- Round of 16: W 3-2 vs. Egypt
- Quarterfinals: W 2-1 vs. Switzerland (a.e.t.)
Coming into this tournament, Argentina had clear weaknesses, but they continued to paper over the gaps with exceptional fortitude and Lionel Messi magic. That has been just enough to get them through to the semifinals, partly thanks to a soft bracket, but it has also raised significant questions about the Albiceleste's title chances.
In midfield, they have been a shell of themselves in all three games, unable to strangle the life out of matches as they have previously been accustomed to. When they do gain a foothold on a game's flow, they have opened themselves up to being countered effectively.
While Lionel Messi remains the all-time legend he is, this team has the depth, talent, and star power to beat anyone in the world, and they still absolutely could become the first team since the 1960s to repeat as World Cup champions. But it's hard to watch three consecutive games where they look nothing like themselves and not be somewhat worried about their viability later in the tournament, even with the soft schedule they've been handed.
Argentina have made a living by being extremely difficult to beat, but in their current makeup, it's hard to imagine them beating a top side given their waning athleticism and physicality in midfield.
MORE:Ranking Lionel Messi's best World Cup goals | Messi's career penalty kick record
Why Argentina will win the World Cup
They've been here before, and for the last six years have been the most difficult team in the world to beat. That experience, coupled with their ability to bend but not break, makes them an extremely difficult out no matter how many mistakes they make.
Oh, and they have Lionel Messi, whose magic not only wins games directly, but also oozes into his teammates who are lifted by his presence.
Why Argentina won't win the World Cup
Lionel Scaloni's side has started to falter, and against teams that are significantly inferior. Combine a clearly aging midfield and a complete lack of width, and this team looks ripe for a semifinal exit.
It's hard to see this team, on current sputtering form, lifting yet another FIFA trophy. They should still be lauded for reaching three straight World Cup semifinals, and winning at least one.
MORE: How has England faired in past World Cup semifinals?
3. England
Superlative: Most want to be stuck on a desert island with
- FIFA Rank: #4
- Group stage:
- W 4-2 vs. Croatia
- D 0-0 vs. Ghana
- W 2-0 vs. Panama
- Round of 32: W vs. DR Congo 2-1
- Round of 16: W vs. Mexico 3-2
- Quarterfinals: W vs. Norway 2-1
England entered this tournament as one of the title favorites, and they looked every bit the part as they carved an aging Croatia to shreds in their opening game. While they squandered a lot of that good will in less-than-stellar performances against Ghana and DR Congo, the steel they displayed in pressure cookers over the next two games is unmistakeable.
At times, England have struggled, often against lesser opponents — Thomas Tuchel even surprised after the Norway win by saying they were "lucky" because of the many "mistakes" they made. But the moxie they have displayed thus far is unmatched. "This is pure mentality, you can bottle it up and sell it," Tuchel's iconic line declared.
This team is probably top-three in the world talent-wise, and Thomas Tuchel is a great coach. They have done enough to justify Tuchel's questionable roster decisions before the tournament, as they have managed to paper over the absences at right-back. The Declan Rice injury is extremely concerning, as his absence in the second half against Norway was alarming as the Vikings took control for a spell, but they powered through.
Why England will win the World Cup
England just refuses to be knocked down, no matter the environment. It survived the hostile Azteca at altitude, and it survived the sweltering heat in Miami.
Jude Bellingham has been absolutely brilliant, and so have his midfield teammates Elliot Anderson and Declan Rice. Harry Kane is a cheat code, Marc Guehi is coming off a game where he pocketed Erling Haaland, and both Djed Spence and Dan Burn have been aces off the bench. Yes, this team has some structural weaknesses being tested, but it is firing on all cylinders in the right places.
This team just keeps digging deep, tapping into an endless source of heart. It very well might be coming home.
Why England won't win the World Cup
Those structural weaknesses mentioned earlier could come back to haunt England if their opponent exploits the right spots.
Thomas Tuchel has Ezri Konsa playing at right-back, and Declan Rice is struggling to play through excruciating pain. Is Bukayo Saka fit? If not, Noni Madueke ain't it on the right.
Injuries and a lack of depth in certain places — most notably full-back and winger — are a problem.
MORE: Messi holds record for most World Cup goals in history, but who is on his heels?
2. Spain
Superlative: Best dressed
- FIFA Rank: #3
- Group stage:
- D 0-0 vs. Cape Verde
- W 4-0 vs. Saudi Arabia
- W 1-0 vs. Uruguay
- Round of 32: W 3-0 vs. Austria
- Round of 16: W 1-0 vs. Portugal
- Quarterfinals: W 2-1 vs. Belgium
Spain has been defensively the best team at the tournament, becoming the first team in World Cup history to keep six consecutive clean sheets in the FIFA championship. It finally had its goose egg broken by Belgium, but it remains an extremely stout team with structural integrity and unmatched discipline.
Its attack has not been as deadly as it could be, especially with Lamine Yamal still not fully fit (he self-admittedly is still at 80-90%) and Nico Williams also not fully fit, but it has done just enough to continue moving on. There are absolutely worries about its ability to keep up with an opponent offensively if it ends up in a shootout, but Luis de la Fuente seems to understand that and has prioritized defensive acumen to accommodate.
With Pedri and Rodri humming in midfield, and Unai Simon looking strong in goal, this Spain team is looking like a true title contender, even without their fully-firing strike force.
Why Spain will win the World Cup
They have one of the most talented team in the field, and certainly the one with the fewest weaknesses. They are dedicated to Luis de la Fuente's structure and instructions, and have players who execute specific roles to perfection within the system.
While Spain don't boast as many superstars as other teams left in the field, they also have the fewest holes in the squad. Rodri is looking close to his best, at least on the ball, Marc Cucurella and Pedro Porro have been fantastic out wide, and Dani Olmo is pulling strings in midfield.
Can any team break down Spain enough to punish them at the back? It's looking more and more difficult to breach their back line, even with world-class talent.
Why Spain won't win the World Cup
This team lacks too much bite without a fully fit Lamine Yamal on one side and Nico Williams on the other. If the two of them aren't at full strength, can Spain really keep a lid on either France or Spain's attack?
If not, they are not equipped to get in a shootout in this current state, and it could be their undoing, especially if Pedri continues to underwhelm at this tournament.
1. France
Superlative: Most likely to succeed
- FIFA Rank: #2
- Group stage:
- W 3-1 vs. Senegal
- W 3-0 vs. Iraq
- W 4-1 vs. Norway
- Round of 32: W 3-0 vs. Sweden
- Round of 16: W 1-0 vs. Paraguay
- Quarterfinals: W 2-0 vs. Morocco
Nothing has changed since the knockout stage began, as France is unquestionably the most talented team in the entire field, both on paper and in practice. It proved as much throughout its various performances, even as it struggled at various stages, able to flip a switch at any moment and put its opponent under siege.
Kylian Mbappe is the best attacking player in the world not named Lionel Messi, and even though he doesn't press or defend, the dynamic he brings to a team is unmatched. Around him, the attacking talent overflows, but the main playmaker is Michael Olise, who has enjoyed a fantastic start to his first World Cup.
The one weakness for France is in midfield, where Aurelien Tchouameni is on a bit of an island, and if he continues to miss out due to injury after sitting against Morocco, that would further thin this squad. Adrien Rabiot doesn't bring much to the table and gets lost in certain spaces, and there is hardly any depth behind them, even as Kouadio Kone filled in admirably in the quarterfinal.
Didier Deschamps prefers to manage games with static possession, but he doesn't exactly have the midfield talent to do so. He's better off just letting this team off the leash, but we'll see if he has the conviction to pull the trigger.
Why France will win the World Cup
This five-headed hydra up front is just too good to be stopped, and they have both the in-form defense and the pragmatic manager to support it.
Kylian Mbappe is not having the vampiric effect on the attacking unit that Real Madrid fans want you to believe, as he combines with Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Desire Doue, and Bardley Barcola to compliment one another beautifully. Yes, Mbappe is the star, but he can co-exist with all of the above to create an enormous net positive.
And, when France are broken in midfield, they have the world's best defensive partnership in William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano to prop it up. Lucas Digne and Jules Kounde on the wings have been great two-way players, leaving very few weak points in this squad.
This team is the best in the world on paper, and they just keep proving it time and time again. It won't matter who they come up against, they will just continue winning games.
Why France won't win the World Cup
The thin midfield could become too much to carry on the other ends of the pitch.
Aurelien Tchouameni was already carrying a significant weight on his shoulders, and now could be undone by an injury. Adrien Rabio continually gets lost in no-man's land, and can Kouadio Kone really put up another strong performance if needed again, especially against a title contender?
If France can't link up between back and front, it will mean Michael Olise or Ousmane Dembele will have to show deeper to receive the ball and progress it up the field, which neuters their attack enough that others can capitalize on that drop-off.