Trump's "Swiss Army" tools on Iran: Vance and Rubio

· Axios

As he tries to hammer out a peace deal with Iran, President Trump has a dovish adviser in Vice President Vance perched on one figurative shoulder — and a hawkish Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the other.

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Why it matters: The success of the talks — and therefore the health of global oil markets — greatly depends on how well Trump deploys each man to balance competing interests in Iran, Israel and Lebanon.

  • "Think of Marco and JD as aspects of the president's personality and policy," a top Trump adviser told Axios. "There's a more pro-Israel aspect of it, and that's Rubio. And there's a more Israel-skeptic aspect. That's JD."

Zoom in: Vance and Rubio differed during internal administration deliberations about the landmark June 17 memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran.

  • Vance negotiated the deal with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the vice president thought Trump should sign off on the deal to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize the economy ahead of the midterm elections, according to several U.S. sources.
  • Rubio, with CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, was skeptical about the MOU and the chances it could lead to a comprehensive nuclear deal.

During his trip to the Gulf area last week, Rubio spoke with his regional counterparts about the need to increase the pressure on Iran, according to a source with knowledge of the talks.

  • But Rubio isn't trying to undermine the Iran deal. He and Witkoff briefed members of Congress on Monday, trying to sell the deal to skeptical lawmakers.
  • "Don't think of them as two sides of the same coin," an administration adviser said of Rubio and Vance. "They're more like the different tools on a Swiss Army knife." And Trump wields the knife.

Between the lines: The negotiations are complex because they're trilateral, involving Israel, Iran and Lebanon. They involve three agreements:

  1. The MOU signed June 17 between Iran and the U.S.
  2. A June 21 agreement Vance struck with Iran in Switzerland concerning Lebanon.
  3. A peace framework, shepherded by Rubio, signed Friday by Israel and Lebanon.

Friction point: On Rubio's track, the parties worked to block Iran from interfering in Lebanon. But Vance's track gave the Iranians a say in the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which the U.S. classifies as an Iran-backed terrorist group destabilizing Lebanon.

  • The issue was so confusing that both Israeli and Lebanese negotiators last week asked U.S. mediators to clarify which of the tracks represents the administration's policy.
  • A senior U.S. official involved in the talks said Vance and Trump both signed off on Rubio's accord.

The fine print: The 14-point June 17 MOU between Iran and the U.S. implies that Israel will withdraw from Lebanon as part of a final deal between the U.S. and Iran.

  • But the Friday deal allows for a more phased withdrawal by Israel — and conditions it on the disarming of Iran's terrorist proxy group, Hezbollah.
  • Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon were furious, declared Rubio's deal null and void, and demanded that the U.S.-Iran MOU negotiated by Vance be the one the parties should abide by.

What they're saying: Trita Parsi, VP at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said on X that the Israel-Lebanon deal threatens to undermine the MOU and "has caused riots in Beirut amid accusations that the Lebanese government has sold out the country and acquiesced to Israel occupying parts of southern Lebanon."

  • A senior U.S. official, however, noted that the MOU specifically discusses the "sovereignty of Lebanon," and that Friday's agreement Rubio oversaw is in line with that language because "Lebanon signed this agreement. Either Iran believes in Lebanon's sovereignty or it doesn't."
  • Said a second U.S. official: "To the Iranians, the deals conflict. To us, they do not. It depends on how you interpret those clauses."
  • "For us, it says there would be a ceasefire and now we've put a mechanism in place. But how do you get there? If the Iranians said Israel has to withdraw from Lebanon, well, this put a framework in place for that."

Not only did Friday's agreement not contradict the MOU, the source said, Vance and Rubio aren't in conflict with one another.

  • "JD, Steve and Jared iterated the deal with Iran," the official said. "That's their responsibility. Marco has to deal with the rest of the world. So there's a Venn diagram where there's overlap in Lebanon."
  • "It makes for a clean headline that there's a difference between Vance and Rubio. Sure, they tilt one direction or another. But it's not that clean. And there's no knife fight between them, despite what the media and the Democrats and the Iranians want."

The big picture: Even if there are conflicts in the separate deals he authorized through Vance and Rubio, insiders don't see it as an impediment for Trump.

  • "This is all about moving toward peace. The more peace deals, the better," a senior administration official said. "If Iran wants peace, there will be peace. If it wants war, there will be war."
  • The official also disputed the idea of conflict between Vance and Rubio, saying they're "working in concert with each other. It's not that one has the pro-Israel bucket and the other has the anti-Israel bucket. It's not how it works internally."

The intrigue: U.S. officials say the result of the Iran negotiations could have domestic political implications — especially when it comes to the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.

  • One U.S. official said Rubio didn't take the front seat in the Iran negotiations for a reason. "He is waiting to see if Vance self-destructs," the official said.
  • But one of the other senior U.S. officials called that characterization "boneheaded and wrong. Both Marco and JD are executing the president's will."
  • "There is one camp — President Trump's camp — and the entire administration is fully behind the president's efforts to ensure Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon," White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.

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