LILLEY: Donald Trump hedges his bets on CUSMA renewal despite hints of progress

· Toronto Sun

U.S. President Donald Trump cast doubt on the idea that he will renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on free trade come July 1. By that deadline, each of the three countries need to indicate if they will renew the trade deal that came into effect in 2020 for a further 16 years, if they will withdraw from it or allow the original 16-year process to play out but with annual reviews.

Speaking with reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump had plenty to say about why the deal shouldn’t be renewed and how the ability to cancel it was its best feature.

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“I’m not looking to renew it,” Trump said.

He didn’t indicate in his comments whether the U.S. would look to withdraw from the deal or move toward the 10 years of annual reviews. Yet in speaking of the deal, he said the best change from NAFTA to CUSMA — or USMCA, as the Americans call it — was the ability to withdraw from it with six months of notice.

“NAFTA was a disaster for our country, the worst trade deal ever made by far,” Trump said. “USMCA did one thing that I love. After six years, it comes up for renewal. I don’t know that I’m going to renew it.”

Negotiations have been like a roller-coaster

Talks have been up and down over the last year and then were frozen for months starting in October. Mexico has been progressing in its talks much quicker than Canada, which is similar to 2017 when Mexico negotiated the main deal that Canada signed onto at the last minute.

That said, talks with Canada have recently been making some progress including on changes to autos and the requirement for North American parts to be 85% of all parts with American parts being 50% of all parts as well.

That’s a requirement that Canadian plants could easily meet, but one that would be more difficult for Mexico.

Then on Wednesday, Trump went back to the claim that he doesn’t need anything from Canada or Mexico.

“We don’t need anything that Canada has. We don’t need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have and they have to treat us better,” Trump said.

“You know, with Mexico and Canada, we have trade deficits. We should have surpluses with them. We don’t need their cars. We don’t need their lumber. We don’t need their energy.”

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Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, speaking with reporters at the Global Energy Show in Calgary, had perhaps the best reaction to Trump’s comments.

“We won’t be responding to daily comments that come out of the White House,” Moe said.

Speaking later in the day at an event where he signed an agreement with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said : “Where I totally disagree is we do need each other. Without each other, you know, we have other countries like China coming in, cornering the market on critical minerals. We need to be there to support each other with our closest friends and allies.”

Shapiro, a Democrat who clearly sees problems in the CUSMA deal and wants it fixed, still said that “economic development and economic growth between our two countries is not a zero-sum game. I want to make sure the USMCA is strengthened to be fair across the border and to ensure that both countries can benefit from it.”

A hint that perhaps Trump is still open to a deal — despite his earlier comments — was made toward the end of his Oval Office availability.

“We’re talking to them, we’ll see if we do something,” Trump said.

So a denunciation of the deal before him and then a hint that maybe it will continue. Is this a head fake or just the art of the deal?

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