ICE activity hurts some U.S.-born workers, study finds
· Axios
President Trump's immigration crackdown has not expanded job opportunities for American workers, a new study found — in fact, it's associated with an employment drain for some U.S.-born men.
Why it matters: The narrative of undocumented immigrants "taking" Americans' jobs has long been a propelling force behind the president's ICE enforcement push. But research suggests his mass deportations aren't clearing the way for U.S.-born workers in the job market.
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Context: ICE activity led to a "negative and significant impact" on employment of U.S.-born working men with at most a high-school education working in sectors likely affected by enforcement, like construction, a working paper published in the National Bureau of Economic Research found.
- The research from authors Chloe East, an associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder, and Elizabeth Cox, a research assistant, is stated to be the first of its kind studying the national labor market impacts of the Trump 2.0 ICE blitz.
- It also found that there is no evidence that employers have driven up wages to attract U.S.-born workers. Rather, the results reflect a reduction in overall demand.
What they're saying: White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told Axios in an emailed statement Tuesday there "is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force."
- She added, "President Trump's agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this Administration's commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws."
Between the lines: The narrative that deportations may be beneficial for U.S.-born workers hinges on the assumption that they're working in the same jobs as undocumented workers, East says. But that's not generally the case.
- Rather, U.S.-born workers fill "complementary" gigs, she tells Axios, pointing to the example of the construction industry, where many laborers are often immigrants or undocumented immigrants.
- "When a construction company has a hard time finding people to do those jobs, they're going to build fewer homes, and fewer new buildings in general, and hire less people in general, including jobs that are typically taken by U.S.-born workers, like electricians or roofers."
The big picture: The study reflects the anecdotal trend of the ICE wave's chilling effect on immigrant communities, which has also reportedly squeezed commercial traffic in heavily impacted areas and even driven patients away from medical care.
- CU Boulder noted in a post on the research that in areas hit with a "surge," there was a 4% decrease in employment among likely undocumented workers still in the U.S. in likely affected jobs.
- The research suggests the "chilling effect" under Trump 2.0 is bigger than it was during past mass deportation efforts, according to the college.
- "Because there is such a randomness and indiscriminate nature to what ice is doing right now, lots of people are afraid to leave their home, even more so than we've seen before," East explains.
Zoom out: The job market headline numbers have looked pretty good this year, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes, with the latest data demonstrating a business hiring surge in March.
- But Wall Street Journal analysis last month found that industries where immigrants with low educational attainment are overrepresented have seen slower wage growth than in the broader private sector since the start of Trump's second term.
- "In specific sectors and in areas that have been hit particularly hard by ICE, we are seeing a disruption to the labor market," East tells Axios. "It's just hard to see that in the national data."
Go deeper: America's yo-yo job market