Distrust, dishonesty and Trump's elusive Iran deal

President Trump declared Monday morning that a peace deal with Iran would be signed "today" in Islamabad, and that Vice President Vance was on his way.

• But Vance was actually still in Washington, waiting for a signal from Tehran before boarding his plane — a sign of the deep uncertainty over what will happen next.

The big picture: Trump wants the war to end, now, on his terms. But there's only one day left before the ceasefire expires, Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and the sides have thus far been unable to even set a meeting. The war may therefore be on the precipice of a massive expansion.

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• "He's over it. He wants it done. He doesn't like Iran holding [its control of the strait] over the Middle East. He doesn't like them holding this over our heads. He doesn't want to fight anymore. But he will if he feels he has to," an administration official told Axios.

Breaking it down: There's still a window for a deal, at least to extend the ceasefire.

• Genuine progress was made in negotiations last week. As of Friday, Trump's upbeat declarations of imminent peace — he told Axios a deal would be reached in "a day or two" — seemed plausible.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had just declared the strait "completely open." Global markets were jubilant.
• It would only take 24 hours for the situation to spiral right back to the brink of war.

Within hours of Araghchi pronouncing the strait open on Saturday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired on tankers trying to cross it, citing Trump's unwillingness to lift his own blockade.

• U.S. officials saw that as evidence of a divide between Speaker of Parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and IRGC commander Gen. Ahmad Vahidi.
• "We thought they were negotiating with the right people, they had reached the cocktail of what they had agreed to, what could be announced," a senior administration official said. "But what happened is the Iranian team went back and the IRGC and those kinds of people said 'oh, no, no. You don't speak for us.'"
• "Now they have a real divide over there between these factions and we're not sure who's going to win it. We hope the team we negotiated with will," the official said.
• A second U.S. official told Axios: "We aren't sure who's in charge and neither do they. That's going to have work itself out."

On Sunday, 24 hours later, the U.S. escalated by firing on and seizing an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel outside the strait in the Gulf of Oman.

The other side: Trump's running commentary has added to the confusion as he veers between threats, optimism and dishonesty.

• While his negotiators were offering $20 billion in frozen funds for Iran's uranium stockpile, and discussing a temporary moratorium on enrichment, Trump falsely told several reporters that Iran had agreed to give up on the stockpile and enrichment — no frozen funds necessary.
• When talks hit turbulence, he made a series of contradictory statements about who on his team would be heading to Pakistan, and when. First Vance wasn't going — then he was, then he was in the air, then he wasn't. The Iranian side, meanwhile, remained noncommittal.
• Amid his proclamations that a deal was close, Trump also peppered in threats to destroy Iran's bridges and power plants.
• Tehran suspected that was his true intention, and the diplomacy was all just cover for a surprise attack.

What they're saying: "Honoring commitments is the basis of meaningful dialogue," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote Monday on X.

• "Deep historical mistrust in Iran toward U.S. gov conduct remains, while unconstructive & contradictory signals from American officials carry a bitter message; they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force."

Zoom in: The Pakistani mediators have been trying to get the process back on track, and passing proposals between the sides.

• The latest draft covers "sanctions, enrichment, money, the dust (nuclear material), the future," the senior official said.
• Despite Trump's claims, at no point have the Iranians agreed to give up enrichment permanently. "It's somewhere between 'we won't build a nuclear weapon' to 'we won't enrich in our country' to 'we won't touch anything for 5, 10, 15 years,'" the official explained.
• While Trump insists he won't, administration officials say he would likely unfreeze Iranian funds for the right deal. One said Iran's government was "broke," adding: "They want money, access to their money. They want sanctions lifted."
• "We would want to keep some strings attached, especially with regard to future enrichment and opening the strait and, perhaps, getting the dust. But we're still prepared to get the dust ourselves."

Behind the scenes: Trump's team believes Iran is suffering from intense economic pressure as a result of the blockade.

• "We think they can't survive this. The economic devastation is real. The Persians are tough and stoic. But this is a lot," that official said.
• "We're optimistic. The time frame might be too optimistic. So that's why you're seeing discussions of stopgap measures on the economic front, such as opening a lane of the strait."
• "So far they have not gotten to the place where Donald Trump has said let's do it. And he's not at the point of saying it's in bad faith and we're going to start dropping bombs," the official said.

What to watch: Trump and his team are now discussing what a renewed military campaign would look like, including whether to attempt to seize the strategic Kharg Island.

• Trump had said the bombing campaign that started Feb. 28 would wrap up within six weeks, and he made sure to meet that deadline. But that may have "just been phase one," the official said.
• "We're in phase two now. If phase three is more bombing or a peace deal, it's up to the Iranians."

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