Monsoon May Remain 6% Weaker Than Long Period Average In 2026: Skymet Forecast

· Free Press Journal

Another challenge for the Indian economy is in the making as monsoon rains this year may remain below normal, further denting the growth prospects of the country. India is expected to receive 6 percent lower than normal downpour this season, according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet.

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Another challenge for the Indian economy is in the making as monsoon rains this year may remain below normal, further denting the growth prospects of the country.

India is expected to receive 6 percent lower than normal downpour this season, according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet.

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The June to September rains may remain at 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to the adverse impact of El Nino, Skymet said in its first official forecast for the 2026 monsoon season.

In a report released earlier, it had said that the average monsoon rains during the four months of the year may remain at around 817 millimetres.

According to the weather forecast agency, there is a 30 percent possibility of a drought in the country and a 40 percent possibility of rains being ‘below normal’ this year.

The agency also revealed the month-wise rain forecast. Downpour in June is expected to be 101 percent of the Long Period Average, while there is a 40 percent chance of it being normal and a 40 percent chance of it being ‘below normal’. The LPA of June rains is 165.3 millimetres.

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In July, it expects monsoon rains across the country to be cumulatively ‘below normal’ at 95 percent of the LPA, with a 40 percent chance of it being ‘normal’ and ‘below normal’ equally. The LPA for the month of July is 280.5 millimetres.

In August, it expects monsoon rains to be ‘below normal’ at 92 percent of the LPA. The LPA for the month of August is 254.9 millimetres. The probability of August 2026 having a ‘below normal’ monsoon is about 60 percent.

In September, the average rainfall across India may remain ‘below normal’ at 89 percent of the LPA. The LPA for September may remain at 167.9 millimetres.

According to the forecast, there is a 79 percent chance of September rains being ‘below normal’.

Below-average monsoon could have larger implications for the Indian economy, which is already facing slower-than-expected growth due to the West Asian war.

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