MLB Best Strikeout Bets For March 28, 2026—Peterson And Detmers
· Yahoo Sports
David Peterson has a fantastic matchup for hitting his over for strikeouts today.
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Getty ImagesMLB has games spread throughout the entire day on Saturday, providing gamblers with a plethora of strikeout props to pick from. The best strikeout bets got off to a fast start, with two correct selections on Opening Day. Both highlighted pitchers hit their overs for strikeouts.
Today’s best strikeout bets include an over and an under. One southpaw has a cushy matchup against a strikeout-prone lineup at home, making his over a compelling bet. Another lefty has a challenging matchup against a lineup with multiple hitters with low strikeout rates against southpaws and a few patient hitters who can work up a pitcher’s pitch count, enhancing the appeal of betting on his under.
MLB Best Strikeout Bets
David Peterson (New York Mets - SP)
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130) at Fanatics Sportsbook
David Peterson spun a 2.90 ERA in 21 starts in a breakout in 2024, but his ERA estimators, including a 4.59 xERA, 4.10 xFIP and 4.37 SIERA, suggested he was quite lucky. Predictably, Peterson didn’t duplicate his sub-3.00 ERA.
The lefty tallied a 4.22 ERA in 30 starts spanning 168.2 innings in 2025. Interestingly, his 4.59 xERA in 2025 was identical to his mark in 2024, and he improved his xFIP to 3.72 and his SIERA to 4.09.
Peterson also ticked up his strikeout rate from 19.8% in 2024 to 20.7% in 2025. He also improved his called-plus-swinging-strike rate from 27.5% in 2024 to 27.8% in 2025. Peterson isn’t a world-beater, but he’s a rock-solid pitcher, and he might be slightly better than last year’s ERA suggested.
The 30-year-old hurler is also quite sharp at home. In 132 innings at home since 2024, Peterson has twirled a 3.89 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, 8.9% walk rate and 20.6% strikeout rate.
He should be ready for close to a full workload in his first start of the season. Peterson got stretched out to 76 pitches in his final start of Spring Training on March 22.
Peterson’s strikeout prop line of 4.5 isn’t particularly high, and he can clear it in a favorable matchup. Roster Resource projects the Pirates to start Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O’Hearn, Jared Triolo, Jake Mangum, Nick Gonzales and Henry Davis to start against left-handed starting pitchers.
Eight of those projected starters have had at least a 20.8% strikeout rate against lefties since 2024, and seven of them have had at least a 22.1% strikeout rate. Five of the projected starters have struck out in more than a quarter of their plate appearances against lefties since 2024.
Peterson’s matchup is dreamy for striking out batters. He is a good bet to clear the low bar of 4.5 strikeouts and strike out at least five Pirates today.
Reid Detmers has a difficult matchup against an opponent he hasn't enjoyed much strikeout success against.
Getty ImagesReid Detmers (Los Angeles Angels - SP)
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-118) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Reid Detmers made 75 starts for the Angels from 2021 to 2024. In those starts, Detmers had a 4.90 ERA, 4.35 xERA, 4.24 xFIP, 4.11 SIERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.3% walk rate and 25.0% strikeout rate.
The lefty’s strikeout rate was good. However, his ERA was ugly, his ERA estimators were unimpressive and his control was lousy. As a result, Detmers spent the entire 2025 season as a reliever. It was a good enough campaign for the Angels to give Detmers another crack at starting.
Detmers got stretched out to only 66 pitches in Spring Training. He pitched four innings or fewer in all of his appearances.
Detmers could struggle to pitch deep enough into the game to surpass 5.5 strikeouts today. In addition, Detmers’ matchup is challenging.
The Astros started Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Cam Smith, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz and Brice Matthews against lefty Yusei Kikuchi last night. Six of those batters had a strikeout rate of 19.0% or lower against southpaws since 2024, and four of them had a 17.4% strikeout rate or lower.
Furthermore, three of those hitters had a walk rate of 10.4% or higher. Given Detmers’ previous struggles with his control, Houston’s patience could result in the lefty inefficiently piling up pitches. Finally, Detmers has an unimpressive 19.1% strikeout rate in his career against the batters on Houston’s current roster. Therefore, Detmers should log fewer than six strikeouts, making his -118 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook for his under one of Saturday’s most appealing strikeout bets.