March Madness bracket busters 2026: The best sleeper picks, upset predictions for NCAA Tournament
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March Madness bracket busters 2026: The best sleeper picks, upset predictions for NCAA Tournament originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
It's getting more difficult to spot a true Cinderella in the NCAA Tournament.
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There will be multiple double-digit seeds that win in the first round. There have been an average of six first-round upsets with double-digit seeds in the last three tournaments. It's 18 out of 84 possible games – a 21.4% success rate. Even in a chalky tournament, that's a good chaos rate.
The problem? Only three double-digit seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 in the last three tournaments, and that includes No. 10 Arkansas (2025) and No. 11 NC State (2024). Those are power conference teams. No. 15 Princeton (2024) pulled off the Cinderella run three years ago.
That means we're due. Perhaps Miami (Ohio) — which earned a No. 11 seed after finishing 31-0 in the regular season before a loss in the MAC tournament — could be that team. But there are other options. Here is a look at our favorite Bracket Busters ahead of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, which features some schools you remember from busting up the bracket in the past.
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March Madness sleeper picks, upset predictions
Best bets to reach Sweet 16
No. 11 VCU (27-7)
Phil Martelli Jr. led the Rams to the Atlantic 10 tournament championship. The Rams slipped into the tournament — and they have only lost a game since Jan. 14. VCU played a non-conference schedule that included close losses to NC State and New Mexico, and they beat Virginia Tech. VCU has seven players who score at least seven points per game, led by Terrence Hill Jr. (14.4 ppg.). VCU has a tough matchup against No. 6 North Carolina, who remains a high-level team even without Caleb Wilson. If VCU can win that one, however, then it could get interesting.
No. 10 Santa Clara (26-8)
The Broncos haven't been in the NCAA tournament since the Steve Nash heyday of the 1990s. Those teams had two first-round upsets in three appearances. This year's Santa Clara team — led by veteran coach Herb Sendek — ranks sixth in the nation in field-goal attempts and 14th in 3-point attempts. They played tough against Gonzaga in those three losses, and guard Christian Hammond (15.8 ppg.) shoots 40% from 3-point range. This would require knocking out No. 7 Kentucky in the first round before a potential matchup against No. 2 Iowa State — but this is an attractive double-digit seed worth watching.
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
Best bets for first-round upset
No. 12 McNeese (28-5)
The aura is back. Bill Armstrong led the Cowboys to a 29-5 record, and they rank first in the nation in turnover margin (7.3). That can lead to a first-round upset. McNeese had two Quad 2 victories this season, and they are on a 10-game winning streak. Sophomore Larry Johnson averages 17.5 points per game. McNeese gets No. 5 Vanderbilt; an over-achieving team that made a run to the SEC tournament championship this week. Is this too popular given what happened last season?
No. 11 Miami (Ohio) (31-1)
The committee made the right call by letting the RedHawks in. Miami can validate that in the First Four matchup against No. 11 SMU before potentially getting a shot at No. 6 Tennessee. The RedHawks have an offense that ranked second in the NCAA with 90.7 points per game. Peter Suder (14.6 ppg.) is one of three players who shoot better than 40% from 3-point range, and Brant Byers (14.2 ppg.) is yet another scoring option. The RedHawks rank 223rd in scoring defense – so they are going to have to play fast.
No. 12 Akron (28-5)
Shammah Scott's 3-pointer propelled the Zips to a MAC tournament championship, and coach John Groce has Akron in the tournament for the fourth time in five seasons. Will the Zips — who are 0-7 all time in NCAA tournament history — finally break through with a victory? Tavari Johnson (20.1 ppg.) leads a group whose top five scorers are seniors. This is a dangerous tournament team that can knock off No.5 Texas Tech in the first round.
No. 12 High Point (30-4)
The Panthers won 30 games this season in the Big South Conference and five of their top six scorers are seniors. Forward Terry Anderson (16.0 ppg.) and guard Rob Martin (15.3 ppg.). All six are transfers, including Cam'Ron Fletcher (12.7 ppg.), who played at Kentucky, and Conrad Martinez (9.3 ppg.), who played at Arizona. High Point lost 75-63 to Purdue in the NCAA Tournament last season. First-year coach Flynn Clayman has built on that. They get another Big Ten team in No. 5 Wisconsin.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Other bracket busters worth watching
No. 12 Northern Iowa (23-12)
The Panthers finished sixth in the Missouri Valley Conference, but they are hot at the right time. Coach Ben Jacobson is making his fifth tournament appearance, and Northern Iowa won four games in four days at the MVC tournament. Trey Campbell averaged 17.8 points per game in that tournament run, and Northern Iowa had an extra weekend of rest. It's a tough first-round matchup against St. John's – the Big East champion.
No. 13 Hawaii (24-8)
The Warriors have six players who average more than eight points per game, and that includes five seniors. Isaac Johnson — a 7-foot center – averages 14.1 points and 5.8 rebounds. Quandre Bullock (13.5 ppg.) is another scoring option. Harry Rouhlideff (10.8 ppg.) is from Australia, and Gytis Nemeiksa (9.3 ppg.) is from Lithuania. Hawai'i ranks in the top 25 in rebounding margin. They had close losses in non-conference play to Oregon and Arizona State – so they will have to play over their head against No. 4 Arkansas. This is the kind of team March Madness loves to bring in.
No. 14 Penn (18-11)
Fran McCaffery led the Quakers to an upset in the Ivy League tournament. The longtime coach will be making his 12th tournament appearance — and TJ Power is coming off a 44-point performance against Yale. Power, a Duke and Virginia transfer, has five games with at least five 3-pointers this season. Can the Ivy League pull another first-round upset against No. 3 Illinois. McCaffery knows the Illini well from this time with Iowa.
No. 16 UMBC (24-8)
The Retrievers are back. UMBC shocked the world when it upset No. 1 Virginia in the 2018 NCAA Tournament as a No. 16 seed. Is there a chance to do it again? The Retrievers have won 12 straight games heading into the play-in game against Howard, and three players average double figures in Jah'Likai King (14.3 ppg.), DJ Armstrong (12.6 ppg.) and Ace Valentine (11.9 ppg.). Armstrong – who shoots 42% from 3-point range – had 33 points and seven 3-pointers in the America East championship game. Would that be enough to give Michigan a scare if the chance presents itself?